The Core

I think it is more a question of compliance/severity rather than incubation period.

Looks to me like the curve is starting flatten in UK, next few days will be interesting. Of course the more we test the more cases we will find, that queers the numbers.

compliance/severity rather than incubation period.

  Not locked down hard enough.

Certainly the first few days were a bit of a farce, but as most of my friends do not live in cities (with the exception of London) its difficult to get a feel for whats happening on the street. 
The rural areas are in lock down, but there is gossip that says the cities are not taking it so seriously.

But what I SEE is very strict social distancing in the UK. And from that I would expect a bit more than we are getting. The numbers are still going up. The curve might be flattening, but less than I would have thought on a 2 week incubation.

imagine if EVERYONE was completely isolated 2 weeks ago.  There should be NO new cases right now. Regardless of the numbers infected at the time of lockdown. So a family of 2 might have passed it on in that time.  etc etc... still looks a steep graph to me.

so maybee its only 2 weeks and actually huge numbers of the pop are cheating.

I use https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus for data, they have a 3 day rolling chart too, attached.

The other thing to keep in mind is that your timeline doesn't account for progress of the disease.

1. Incubation: 2-14 days
2. Initial onset period, during which most people who will get desperately sick are still doing fine - 5 days is what I hear from my doctor friend who is managing his hospital's response and elderly respiratory section.
3. Things start to go bad. People are still at home and maybe not even reporting in yet. 0-5 days
4. Things ARE bad and they go to the hospital: we're now at 7 to 24 days from infection
5. They die. Now we're anywhere from 7 to 60 days from first infection

So if you're looking at deaths, it's a long pipeline.

If you look at most common progression, though, you would be looking at 5 days incubation, another 5 days to turn bad and another while to turn fatal. So for fatalities, you would expect them to peak about 2-4 weeks after total lockdown.

All very good points.  I think it is also very likely that in some households intra-family spread may take a while; think about the house with the brooding teenagers who spend all their time in their room, somewhat isolated from other members of the family.  I've also seen people interacting with extended families, like grandparents babysitting their grandkids while the parents work, and I have a neighbor who has visited his brother's family for dinner. 

I honestly don't think this will be over in the US or UK until we have a vaccine or herd immunity, neither place has their act together enough.

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Edit RC's link: There seems to be a lot of false negatives in testing.  My cousin is an ICU nurse, she had the symptoms to a T (dry cough, head aches, fever, breathing difficulties) and there was a COVID-19 patient on her floor.  Her test came back negative.  I know it is only anecdotal case, but I am seeing a lot of people saying the same thing.

Ooops