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Author Topic: AI forecasting elections  (Read 2180 times)

rcjordan

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AI forecasting elections
« on: February 15, 2017, 01:15:55 PM »
Technically, this is interesting. Politically, given the influence tech is already (supposedly) exerting over elections worldwide, it's a matter of concern.

Le Pen is on course to be France's next president, fund manager says from AI analysis

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/15/marine-le-pen-is-on-course-to-be-frances-next-president-leonie-hill-capitals-arun-kant-says.html
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Mackin USA

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Re: AI forecasting elections
« Reply #1 on: February 15, 2017, 01:20:38 PM »
In our last election, all the experts were wrong.

American Citizens made up their won minds and Voted.
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Mr. Mackin

Travoli

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Re: AI forecasting elections
« Reply #2 on: February 15, 2017, 05:15:51 PM »
Here are the people that predicted Trump while everyone else was wrong:

October 28, 2016
Sanjiv Rai - founder of MogIA system that predicted a Trump win.
"An artificial intelligence system that correctly predicted the last 3 elections says Trump will win"
http://www.businessinsider.com/artificial-intelligence-trump-win-2016-10

October 30, 2016
Allan Lichtman - has been accurate in all eight US presidential races since 1984.
"This country is days away from electing Trump to its highest political office."
https://qz.com/823122/an-american-university-history-professor-who-has-accurately-predicted-three-decades-of-us-presidential-races-says-donald-trump-will-win-the-us-election/
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rcjordan

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Re: AI forecasting elections
« Reply #3 on: February 15, 2017, 05:31:36 PM »
The predictions market (betting) didn't do as well as AI.

With one day to go until Election Day in the U.S., investors seem less certain of the outcome than prediction-market gamblers and polling aggregators.

Quote
Options bets on where the S&P 500 Index will be the day after the election suggest Hillary Clinton has a 63 percent chance of becoming president, Janus Capital Group Inc. said in an e-mail on Saturday. Most polling-aggregation forecasts put her odds of beating Donald Trump at more than 80 percent, with FiveThirtyEight an outlier at 65 percent. On websites that take wagers on the winner, Clinton’s lowest odds are in the Iowa Electronic Markets, where they climbed this weekend to over 70 percent...

...The analysis by Janus is consistent with how the financial markets behaved on Friday: Traders increased hedges against a stunning upset by Trump even as Clinton’s slide in the polls eased. With investors worried that expectations for a status quo outcome -- Democrat in the White House kept in check by Republicans in Congress -- could be upended, the S&P 500 fell for the ninth straight session


https://tippie.uiowa.edu/news/us-election-guide-markets-what-watch-one-day-go

http://tippie.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/
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Travoli

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Re: AI forecasting elections
« Reply #4 on: February 15, 2017, 07:44:20 PM »
>The predictions market (betting) didn't do as well as AI.

There is probably money to be made using AI to place bets. For a short period of time, anyway.

$6k in, $124k out of Trump wager
http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/09/news/betting-election-donald-trump-win/

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Mackin USA

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Re: AI forecasting elections
« Reply #5 on: February 15, 2017, 08:38:00 PM »
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Mr. Mackin

rcjordan

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Re: AI forecasting elections
« Reply #6 on: February 15, 2017, 08:47:40 PM »
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rcjordan

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Re: AI forecasting elections
« Reply #7 on: April 03, 2019, 10:02:25 PM »
<update to 2020 presidential elections>

I went looking for Yang's odds in the predictive betting markets.  ...TL:DR; Terrible.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3633/Who-will-win-the-2020-Democratic-presidential-nomination
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ergophobe

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Re: AI forecasting elections
« Reply #8 on: April 04, 2019, 04:23:01 PM »
Actually, that's better than I would have guessed for Yang.

Way better than I would have guessed for Buttigieg. I just recently heard the name and still don't know a single position he's taken or where he comes from.

A lot of the mid-pack like Yang and Buttigieg are helped by the fact that people mostly don't know anything about them.

Note that ones that people actually know about who have actual track records like Inslee and Gillibrand and Booker are waaayyyy down there. Inslee, with a track record as a governor, is in there with a whole pack of people who aren't even likely to run.

That will change though.

In any case, what remains to be seen is whether anyone on that list can beat Trump in a knife fight, for a knife fight is coming and so far it's looking good for Trump according to the betting markets.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election

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