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#61
Water Cooler / Re: Insiders trading predictio...
Last post by ergophobe - April 23, 2026, 11:33:27 PM
Interesting. A soldier trading on classified information is, obviously, bad for many reasons. But I can't help but think that at this point they have caught the small fry while the big fish are still at large.


The rampant insider trading on classified information on the oil futures market is insane. Someone is making mountains of cash.

In addition to the massive individual bets placed on March 23 and April 7, another one was placed on April 17 for $760,000,000 was placed 20 minutes before Iran's foreign minister the strait would open for commercial traffic. The March 23 bet was, I think, $500,000,000 and it was placed 15 minutes before Trump announced (falsely) that the strait was open.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating, but so far no indictments.

I don't think we've seen such massive insider trading since the 1920s, possibly not ever or at least not so blatantly.
#62
Water Cooler / Insiders trading prediction ma...
Last post by Travoli - April 23, 2026, 11:14:20 PM
It is interesting that insider betting doesn't seem to be materially affecting prediction markets.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/soldier-charged-over-maduro-raid-bet-rcna341710

U.S. soldier involved in Maduro raid charged with betting on the operation

The special forces soldier allegedly made more than $400,000 on Polymarket as a result of the bets, prosecutors say.
#63
Water Cooler / Re: Military Drones Changing t...
Last post by Brad - April 22, 2026, 09:27:14 AM
The short videos of the Ukraine war on social networks have evolved over the years since the war started, previously they involved hunting Russian vehicles and troop columns but now many of them show suicide drones hunting individual Russian soldiers. It's 1st person shooter stuff and even though I have little sympathy for the Russians I can't watch these because you see that Russian soldier desperately trying to evade or sometimes just giving up to their fate. You see their faces.

>drone pilot

The thing is, detached, when you see the skill of the Ukrainian drone pilots, flying through woods, around fallen trees, fences, brush, through buildings, windows, down tunnels and culverts all to hunt down just one man, that flying skill is quite amazing and AI ain't there yet.  Then there are costs per drone, a drone with AI makes sense to pick bigger targets like factories and expensive war machines but right now costs to much to hunt individuals.
#64
Economics & Investing / Re: Authentic Brands Group: Th...
Last post by Brad - April 22, 2026, 08:53:09 AM
So sad.  Seems like an inevitable slide towards sh*t.
#65
Economics & Investing / Re: Authentic Brands Group: Th...
Last post by ergophobe - April 22, 2026, 03:48:56 AM
Just one example among many.

More troubling, is that roughly this process is happening in healthcare. The only real exit strategy for most small physician groups is a PE sale. It usually requires the physicians to stay on for X years and in the cases I've known, they start crying the month ownership changes over and efficiencies and optimizations are rolled out. Those words are Latin for enshitification.
#67
Water Cooler / Re: Military Drones Changing t...
Last post by rcjordan - April 21, 2026, 08:55:17 PM
> "drone pilot" will be a short-lived career field with AI taking over

I agree, but there may be a large SMB demand --jobs too small to call out the corporate drone army.  It's big in real estate, farming , & surveying, etc and maybe that'll provide a few jobs.
#68
Water Cooler / Re: Military Drones Changing t...
Last post by Travoli - April 21, 2026, 06:56:49 PM
Seems like "drone pilot" will be a short-lived career field with AI taking over shortly. Drone designers and mechanics are probably good for a while.
#69
Water Cooler / Re: Military Drones Changing t...
Last post by rcjordan - April 21, 2026, 02:27:23 PM
The small state university in my town constructed a new drone training arena enclosed on all sides & top with chain-link fencing. We've seen classes using it this year.
#70
Water Cooler / Re: Nordics and Estonia rollin...
Last post by Rumbas - April 21, 2026, 01:43:35 PM
Yeah, we had an outage and everything went down. No credit cards, no option to pay for tolls on bridges etc. Caused a major problem and now we need to be able to process payments even when the net or provider goes down.