... as we know it.  And as Google knows it.

Interesting, longish article on Techcrunch about Apple's long game moves against Google and their search advertising.  May work, may not and Google won't be sitting still while it is happening.

https://techcrunch.com/2016/07/24/apple-lays-the-groundwork-to-kill-online-advertising/

If you were Google, would you be scared or just worried?

I heard an interesting interview with a Googler who was contrasting his time at Google with his time at Facebook. When Google announced G+, he said there was an "all hands" meeting at Mark's office and Facebook went into virtual lockdown. People camped out. Employee families were invited to the cafeteria and to use FB facilities so employees could see them, as they otherwise wouldn't. The printed snarky posters. They took it as an existential threat.

Meanwhile, he said he drove by Google one Saturday just to see what was going on, and the parking lot was empty. They didn't seem to realize they were at war.

Thinking of all the research that I've read on productivity and working hours, Google might have had the better strategy. Working 16 hours a day for 7 days a week is typically only productive for one week... but it's still an interesting point.

I think the one time Google really felt threatened is in 2010 when the NYT and big media outlets started saying what many of us had been saying for a while: the search results sucked and were completely gamed by scammers, spammers, spinners and scrapers.

>scared or just worried?

I'd be just worried, but very worried.  This is primarily about the mobile web, of which iOS has a huge market share.  Google is vulnerable there. Death by a thousand cuts.

There is no great outside threat to Google on the desktop other than Google themselves.

>There is no great outside threat to Google on the desktop other than Google themselves.

I don't know.  There is adblock and Amazon.  Both are cutting into Google's long term viability.  Sure, they are the top of search, but Amazon is winning the commerce war.

I wonder what would happen if Google decided that it's a services company, not an ad broker.

Currently AWS is the most profitable unit of Amazon and Google is looking to become a big cloud player.

In other words, GMail is a loss leader that exists so they can serve ads to people. How much do they earn per user? What if they made GMail cost $10/year? Of course people would scream and moan, but Google does have some services people might pay for.

I think if Google is smart enough, they have the ability to pivot as a company. Maybe there will be a thousand cuts, but I could see Google making a shift as dramatic as the one IBM has made (from typewriters and computers to services and patents).

I could see Apple + Amazon knocking Google off its preponderant position, but I see Google's fall to be more like Microsoft's or IBM's, not like DEC or MySpace.

If it breaks Google's monopoly on search and ads then I'm for it.   

Something's got to give, even if it's just the spread of adblock. Everybody's answer seems to be just more ads, which obviously ain't working.

And sites that make you turn adblock off? Yeah, that's going over well. /s

G doesn't seem to be easing up, after recent adds of 4 adwords up top and now the first mappack listing as an ad we're on course for page 1 to be all ads within a year or two. Though they've not fully launched the mappack ad and it's been over a month, it's likely just a tech issue. They are pushing everyone to adblock and potentially leaving the door open for a real competitor.