looking low.

"mid-April there could be a daily death toll of 2,200"

More than 1,000 COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. on a single day: Johns Hopkins
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/3/more-1000-covid-19-deaths-us-single-day-johns-hopk/

So, even if we stabilize at the 2200/day for a month, then start down the curve, we'll blow past 100k.

Actually, the IHME projections are coming down a bit. They dropped the peak number of ICU beds needed in California from 1990 to 1866. They are now projecting 95,000 deaths.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Of course... a week ago they were projecting 81,000 deaths in the next four months. So that number is going the wrong direction

March 26:
"We estimate that there will be a total of 81,114 deaths (95% UI 38,242 to 162,106) from COVID-19 over the next 4 months in the US."
http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

"A closely watched University of Washington model is now projecting about 60,000 deaths in the U.S. "

Fauci: 'Looks like' US deaths will be lower than original projection | TheHill
https://thehill.com/homenews/coronavirus-report/491779-fauci-looks-like-us-deaths-will-be-lower-than-original-projection

I just think there are too many social variables to project accurately given the distance we have between now and a vaccine. 

> social variables

Agreed. But I think the official (under-counted) total provides a crude gauge. 

Experts Think The U.S. COVID-19 Death Toll Will Hit 50,000 By The End Of April | FiveThirtyEight
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/experts-think-the-u-s-covid-19-death-toll-will-hit-50000-by-the-end-of-april/

>> social variables

Quote from: littleman on April 17, 2020, 07:49:25 PM
>> social variables

Words fail me... I wonder if historians will eventually look back and see Covid as the final straw that put the United States on the path to becoming multiple separate countries.

>Words fail me...

I know. MAGA is becoming a death cult.

>death cult

I saw that yesterday somewhere, saying some GOP members were part of "a death cult that worships money."  The description stuck with me.

We're going for the over-wash.

I'm starting to see very large gaps in the daily death totals depending on sources.  I've seen as high as 6k and as low as ~2.3k for yesterday.  Apparently some stats are starting to use probable CV19 deaths while others are only using confirmed cv19 infected deaths.

Added: for USA data

>gaps

Been happening for a bit now.  Some news sources only update once per day.  Some are making their own count compiled from multiple gov sources.  I pick a couple and compare them once a day.  They never seem to be quite as high as current headlines are touting, though.

+

mine:

https://www.newsbreak.com/embed/covid-card?global_stat=1&usa_stat=1&us_map=1

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/409af567637846e3b5d4182fcd779bea

++
The newsbreak and NYT totals usually stay reasonably close together, but are still 'off' by a thousand or more.

U.S. likely to see 50,000 COVID-19 deaths by weekend