https://longbets.org/601/

The thing is, I think the bet falsified the results. Try

https://longbets.org/600
https://longbets.org/602

Those are both 404

https://web.archive.org/web/20120801000000*/https://longbets.org/601/

Of course all that proves is that the page has been up that whole time, not that it would still exist otherwise.  So, your point is still valid and probably spot on.