It is interesting that insider betting doesn't seem to be materially affecting prediction markets.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/soldier-charged-over-maduro-raid-bet-rcna341710

U.S. soldier involved in Maduro raid charged with betting on the operation

The special forces soldier allegedly made more than $400,000 on Polymarket as a result of the bets, prosecutors say.

Interesting. A soldier trading on classified information is, obviously, bad for many reasons. But I can't help but think that at this point they have caught the small fry while the big fish are still at large.


The rampant insider trading on classified information on the oil futures market is insane. Someone is making mountains of cash.

In addition to the massive individual bets placed on March 23 and April 7, another one was placed on April 17 for $760,000,000 was placed 20 minutes before Iran's foreign minister the strait would open for commercial traffic. The March 23 bet was, I think, $500,000,000 and it was placed 15 minutes before Trump announced (falsely) that the strait was open.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating, but so far no indictments.

I don't think we've seen such massive insider trading since the 1920s, possibly not ever or at least not so blatantly.

Martha Stewart went to prison for a lot less.

Yes she did, and there were people back then that also did far worse than her but got completely away with it.  I think she was prosecuted because she was a high profile woman who wasn't very politically powerful.

> far worse

There are many inflection points in recent US history, from Covid to George Floyd to Waco, so I'm not sure if this means anything, but I've heard some people assert that one inflection point was when people realized that no big fish was going to go to jail for the 2008 crash.