Inflation Is Under Control, Aside From All This Inflation

[rcjordan]

> galvanized steel studs

What happened was that steel was depressed and lumber skyrocketed, so for a brief period costs were pretty close.  Locally, we had at least one builder switch.  I rode by the job sites to watch.  BUT assembly was slow.  Tools & fasteners were different.  Hanging sheathing & drywall was a PITA.

I think that 3d printed houses might get a foothold now.

[ergophobe]

SIPS require a fraction of the lumber. If the SIP factories can get their hands on enough OSB, maybe they'll finally take off.

[Brad]

> galvanized steel studs

I heard radio reception was bad inside.  I don't think cell phones were around then.

> SIPS

SIPS are great.  The problem with OSB, manufactured wood joists and hundreds of other newfangled building materials is they are made from the waste of the lumber industry and you have to be actually producing lumber to get lumber waste products.

[ergophobe]

By far the biggest factor behind the acceleration relates to the past, rather than the price pressures of today, as last year's oil-price falls depressed the base used to calculate the annual rate. Yet even the monthly increase, stripped of more volatile food and energy prices, was 0.9%, the strongest since the 1980s. Data for a single month cannot tell you whether runaway inflation is around the corner. But the release says something about the realities of economic reopening.

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/05/13/consumer-price-inflation-in-america-jumps-up-to-42

[rcjordan]

> 0.9%

Debbie says pucker up.

[rcjordan]

Lumber prices fall for an 8th straight day, deepening a roughly 30% pullback | Markets Insider

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/lumber-prices-fall-for-8th-straight-day-deepening-pullback-2021-5-1030447627

[rcjordan]

Hot inflation may have become scorching in May and is expected to hit a 28-year high

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/09/hot-inflation-became-scorching-in-may-and-is-expected-to-hit-a-28-year-high.html

[Drastic]

JPMorgan is hoarding cash because 'very good chance' inflation is here to stay

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/14/jamie-dimon-jpmorgan-is-hoarding-cash-because-very-good-chance-inflation-here-to-stay.html

[ergophobe]

Are you hoarding cash?

What qualifies as hoarding cash for an individual?

How about this as a criteria: I think a "good" emergency fund is six months of living expenses. I think a conservative emergency fund is about 12-18 months living expenses. Anything beyond that is hoarding cash.

Anyway, other than cash, it seems like current options are:

- very low-paying safe investments (CDs, bonds, etc)

- stocks, which seem sky high, but I've felt that before and mostly was wrong

- real estate - which will be in for a huge correction if interest rates rise

- et cetera

And of course, there's always Bitcoin as long as you want Elon Musk to be in control of your investment ;-)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2021/06/13/move-over-dogecoin-tesla-billionaire-elon-musk-has-suddenly-sent-the-bitcoin-price-sharpy-higher/

[rcjordan]

>are you hoarding?

Yes, definitely.  I have several years of living expenses sitting in 1 checking & 1 savings account and another 6 months worth in a CD.  As I liquidated some business interests, I just didn't have anywhere to put it that I felt was solid enough for an elders' retirement account.  I had no faith in the stock market, though that has proven to be wrong.

[rcjordan]

"Consumers' complaints about rising prices on homes, vehicles, and household durables has reached an all-time record"

U.S. consumer sentiment drops in early July on inflation fears | Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-consumer-sentiment-drops-early-july-inflation-fears-2021-07-16/


Rents are going through the roof across much of the U.S. - CBS News
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-apartment-rent-hike-pre-pandemic-price-levels/

[ergophobe]

The question is do people behave rationally and put off purchases because prices are high, in which case inflation is a blip and back to normal, or do they panic and buy before prices rise even more, in which case we're back to WIN buttons. Remember those?

[ergophobe]

This is a good sign.

July Vehicle Sales Forecast: "Sales to Continue Free-Fall"
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/07/july-vehicle-sales-forecast-sales-to.html

Short-term inflation is about supply and demand. Secular inflation is about a story that people are telling about the future. If people tell the right story about the future ("Holy crap, cars are overpriced right now, I'm going to wait") we do not end up with secular inflation. If they tell the wrong story, as they did in the 1970s ("Holy crap, prices are rising fast, I better buy that car now while I can still afford it), we end up with secular inflation.

Seeing people choose option 1 is a good sign, though it looks like this is still mostly a supply problem (no cars to buy) than a demand problem (too expensive, so I don't want one). So it's not clear how it will play out.

I heard on Planet Money that 60% of the recent inflation was due to nothing other than car prices and airfare. Since most people can make their car go another year and, right now, air travel is highly biased toward leisure travel, the demand is elastic in theory. If it plays out that way in practice, we'll be okay.

Plus, a bit of extra inflation over the short term is not a bad thing - the Fed has undershot its inflation target for years now.

[rcjordan]

^{Now THIS is serious!}

Coffee prices surge as unusual cold threatens Brazilian production | Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/coffee-prices-surge-unusual-cold-threatens-brazilian-production-2021-07-26/

[rcjordan]

^{I'm shocked! Shocked, I tell you!  Who would have thought that printing trillions of dollars would cause inflation?}

Fed Chair Jerome Powell: "Inflation Could Turn Out To Be Higher And More Persistent Than We Expect"

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2021/07/28/fed_chair_jerome_powell_inflation_could_turn_out_to_be_higher_and_more_persistent_than_we_expect.html