Russia's "The Disappeared"

[rcjordan]

"A demographic tragedy is unfolding in Russia. Over the past three years the country has lost around 2m more people than it would ordinarily have done, as a result of war, disease and exodus.

    The life expectancy of Russian males aged 15 fell by almost five years, to the same level as in Haiti. The number of Russians born in April 2022 was no higher than it had been in the months of Hitler's occupation.

    And because so many men of fighting age are dead or in exile, women now outnumber men by at least 10m.

    War is not the sole—or even the main—cause of these troubles, but it has made them all worse.

    According to Western estimates, 175,000-250,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in the past year (Russia's figures are lower).

    Somewhere between 500,000 and 1m mostly young, educated people have evaded the meat-grinder by fleeing abroad.

    Even if Russia had no other demographic problems, losing so many in such a short time would be painful. As it is, the losses of war are placing more burdens on a shrinking, ailing population.

     
    If you add pandemic mortality to the casualties of war and the flight from mobilisation, Russia lost between 1.9m and 2.8m people in 2020-23 on top of its normal demographic deterioration.

    Most countries which have suffered population falls have managed to avoid big social upheavals. Russia may be different.

    Its population is falling unusually fast and may drop to 130m by mid-century.

    The decline is associated with increased misery: the life expectancy at birth of Russian males plummeted from 68.8 in 2019 to 64.2 in 2021, partly because of covid, partly from alcohol-related disease.

    Russian men now die six years earlier than men in Bangladesh and 18 years earlier than men in Japan.

    The demographic doom loop has not, it appears, diminished Mr Putin's craving for conquest. But it is rapidly making Russia a smaller, worse-educated and poorer country, from which young people flee and where men die in their 60s."



Russia's population nightmare is going to get even worse | The Economist

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/03/04/russias-population-nightmare-is-going-to-get-even-worse

[ergophobe]

It reminds me of those crazy population pyramids for the USSR and Russia (and Germany) showing obvious shocks

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Soviet_Union_1989_Population_pyramid.svg
https://www.populationpyramid.net/russian-federation/1990/
https://www.populationpyramid.net/germany/1950/

Compare to
https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/1990/
https://www.populationpyramid.net/mexico/1990/

It's not so much the overall trend, but the curves for the US and Mexico are very smooth. Russia/USSR is like a child's drawing of a pine tree.