There are 1.2 million missing retail workers because

[rcjordan]

Retail Pain Is Plain in March Jobs Report

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/retail-pain-plain-march-jobs-report-n743901

[rcjordan]

America's Retailers Are Closing Stores Faster Than Ever

"I don't know how many malls can reinvent themselves."

and the pain could be just beginning. More than 10 percent of U.S. retail space, or nearly 1 billion square feet, may need to be closed, converted to other uses or renegotiated for lower rent in coming years

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-07/stores-are-closing-at-a-record-pace-as-amazon-chews-up-retailers

Debbie says they're in denial, it's going to be more like 30% in the mid-term when this shakes out, with an even higher percentage having to renegotiate lower rents.

[buckworks]

GMTA! I just came here to post that exact article. 

[ergophobe]

I feel like I've been seeing articles about how retail space per capita in the US is at historic highs and therefore a bubble ready to burst since BEFORE the 2008 downturn.

That's the hard thing about bubbles - you know they have to pop, but sometimes they float along for much longer than you expect. You would have thought with the tightening of consumer credit post-2008, this bubble would have long since popped.

[ergophobe]

Last week, Mr. Batkin got a call from a landlord looking to refinance his shopping center with a 10-year loan. Mr. Batkin passed on the deal because it was too difficult to predict what might happen to occupancy in the property 10 years from now.

  -- https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/15/business/retail-industry.html?_r=0

That, more than anything, should scare traditional retailers. Basically, money is drying up because banks don't believe you have a future which sounds like a death spiral.

And this from the same article

More workers in general merchandise stores have been laid off since October, about 89,000 Americans. That is more than all of the people employed in the United States coal industry, which President Trump championed during the campaign as a prime example of the workers who have been left behind in the economic recovery.

[Mackin USA]

Based on the pace so far, Credit Suisse estimates retailers will close more than 8,600 locations this year, eclipsing the number of closings during the 2008 recession.

[Brad]

Nice summary as to why retail is taking the hit in America.

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/04/retail-meltdown-of-2017/522384/?utm_content=buffer5e620&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer

[Mackin USA]

Many things are not so true in that article:

"GDP has been growing for eight straight years"
Very sick GDP growth

[rcjordan]

Excellent summary article. They must read here.

http://www.npr.org/2017/05/02/526560158/a-rapid-shakeup-for-retailers-as-consumer-habits-change

[Mackin USA]

"The disruption is just unfolding," says Mark Cohen, a former CEO of Sears Canada who now directs retail studies at Columbia Business School. "I think the number of store closings will continue at an accelerated pace right through this year into next year."

My friends @ CBRE are hurting FOR SURE

[rcjordan]

Now online shopping is everyone's boogieman...

New Coca-Cola CEO Blames Online Shopping For Sales Decline

https://consumerist.com/2017/05/10/new-coca-cola-ceo-blames-online-shopping-for-sales-decline/

<added>
Abercrombie & Fitch failing

https://consumerist.com/2017/05/10/abercrombie-puts-for-sale-sign-on-its-bared-chiseled-chest/

[Mackin USA]

Understand The Retail Apocalypse With One Giant Chart
One company is eating everyone's lunch

The retail apocalypse has everyone talking. If you thought it was bad before, it just got even worse. Macy's is currently trading at its lowest levels since 2010. But the entire sector has been getting demolished.

https://medium.com/stocktwits/understand-the-retail-apocalypse-with-one-giant-chart-f9ce4434aa70

[ergophobe]

I think this article has already come up here, but in addition to Amazon, the article notes

- new types of online purchasing - Warby Parker, Casper, etc. And in fact, my last two pair of glasses came from Warby Parker and my last two mattresses were "online-only" buys (Saatva and Overstock.com).

- but here's the big one that people have been talking about for a decade

The number of malls in the U.S. grew more than twice as fast as the population between 1970 and 2015, according to Cowen and Company's research analysts. By one measure of consumerist plentitude—shopping center "gross leasable area"—the U.S. has 40 percent more shopping space per capita than Canada, five times more the the U.K., and 10 times more than Germany.

And...

Before the Great Recession, people bought a lot of stuff, like homes, furniture, cars, and clothes, as retail grew dramatically in the 1990s. But something big has changed. Spending on clothes is down—its share of total consumer spending has declined by 20 percent this century. What's up? Travel is booming. Hotel occupancy is booming.

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/04/retail-meltdown-of-2017/522384/

[rcjordan]

As Store Layoffs Mount, Retail Lags Other Sectors In Retraining Workers

http://www.npr.org/2017/05/23/528489507/as-store-layoffs-mount-retail-lags-other-sectors-in-retraining-workers

What part of 'disposable' don't they understand?

[Mackin USA]

One of the pet ideas of neoliberalism is to encourage "labor market flexibility" which is code for letting companies fire employees on a whim. The problem is that a quick to hire, quick to fire posture is not a terribly sound idea. It takes a lot of time and effort to hire and train people (yes, Virginia, even a skilled employee needs to learn the quirks of how his employer likes things done), so firing people casually means a loss of this investment. Export powerhouse Germany has not been competitively impaired by its restrictions on terminating employees. But while some businesses actually believe the HR trope that "employees are our most important asset", most, to adopt an image from Robert Oak at the Economic Populist, treat them as disposables.

Posted on February 18, 2013 by Yves Smith
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com