Hurricane Irma

[rcjordan]

My long term track is showing a little more eastward than Vortex. We need all the eastward we can get.

[Rupert]

goog luck DB.

[littleman]

Man, we have a lot of the Core potentially in the path.  Good luck guys.

>Mandatory evacuation

Might be a good idea to get out early?

[Mackin USA]

>Might be a good idea to get out early?

Hopefully they can find GAS

[Brad]

Good luck everyone.  Keep safe.

[rcjordan]

My current best guess as to track

Landfall [1] Miami Beach FL: 10am Sunday
Fort Laud FL: 2pm Sunday
Goes Offshore at Titusville FL: 5am Monday
Landfall [2] at Savannah, 6pm Monday
Augusta, GA 2am Tuesday
Starts to die out over Greenville, SC 7am Tuesday
Knoxville, TN Noon Tuesday

Dying hurricane cause flooding and tree problems in the hilly & mountain areas. Hurricane Camille¹⁹⁶⁹ was particularly devastating in the foothills of Virginia. Well over 100 dead from flash floods.

[DrCool]

>My current best guess

Seems pretty accurate. My firefighter brothers-in-law in the Hilton Head area are getting ready for a hit up there. If it is above category 3 (don't think it will be) they have to evacuate too.

Still tracking 50-70 miles off shore here so other than a lot of wind (probably 50-70 mph) and rain we should be fine.

[rcjordan]

Debbie says we're going to see another tick to the east, possibly skirting all of Florida and the first landfall about half-way between Savannah and Charleston.  But that's just Debbie ^{(and NOAA's primary supercomputer model, which is one of the tracks blended into the official forecast)}

[DrCool]

I just saw a 3:00 update that showed it heading a bit more to the West. So skirting right up the coast and coming directly over Jacksonville. Hopefully at the 5:00 updates it will show it back to the East.

[rcjordan]

>heading a bit more to the West

Yeah, the long-term tracks are consolidating --all pretty much running along the FL coast then over water until Savannah.

[rcjordan]

Everything I'm seeing still shows the eye slightly offshore as it passes Jax.


Back when you lived is WA, I'll bet you never thought you'd one day be clinging to the 5/11 updates on Vortex, eh, Doc?

[DogBoy]

SoFl high ground...

[rcjordan]

>Everything I'm seeing still shows the eye slightly offshore as it passes Jax.

Except one. It has gone back to plowing straight up the middle of FL, then hooking to the west as it's dying in GA.

[rcjordan]

>Except one. It has gone back to plowing straight up the middle of FL, then hooking to the west as it's dying in GA.

Now Vortex has aligned with this L-T forecast. Interesting.  ...And maybe good news for DB & Doc.

[DogBoy]

I just felt the first blast of wind.

The photo is a good summary of our status report, regarding our departure.