Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)

[littleman]

The Fed cutting rates isn't really getting the attention it deserves imo.


"Investor enthusiasm around the idea of easier Fed policy is understandable," Wilson said. "However, if the Fed were to cut out of concern that we are entering a real unemployment cycle, we think such a cut should not be bought. Until there is further clarity on the employment picture, we think Friday's rally should be faded and investors should continue to skew portfolios defensively."

[ergophobe]

but it's certainly a "black" money thing.

I'm not sure that's always true. I think back to the 1980s when I had a Columbian friend. They were dairy farmers... but the largest dairy farmers in the country and the grandfather had been president of the country. They maintained an apartment in NYC and perhaps others. I was young and don't know details, but I think they were trying to offshore assets because they had seen a lot of countries in the region attempt to nationalize assets or have outright revolutions.

So, imagine you were a completely legit business person with a thriving business in Venezuela a decade (or more) ago. Black money or no, you would be trying to offshore assets before everything you had vaporized.

[rcjordan]

US manufacturing is in recession Feds data show - MarketWatch
https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/11CDA5CC-A73F-11E9-8107-2EB69FA343E0?__twitter_impression=true

[littleman]

Recession fears rise for middle-class families

Middle-class Americans are less optimistic about their economic prospects than they were just six months ago, according to a new report from CUNA Mutual Group.

Although the majority of those polled said they feel relatively stable overall, they graded their chances of achieving the American dream as a "C," down from a "B-minus" in the fall, the insurance provider found. Close to half were increasingly concerned about an upcoming recession.

[Drastic]

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/07/17/foreign-purchases-of-american-homes-plunge-36percent-as-chinese-buyers-flee.html

- The dollar volume of homes purchased by foreigners from April 2018 through March 2019 dropped 36% from the previous year, according to the National Association of Realtors.
- Foreigners bought 183,100 properties with a total value of about $77.9 billion, down from 266,800 properties valued at $121 billion a year earlier.

Smells like a trigger.

[Travoli]

Ray Dalio uses history to hypothesize future moves by the fed, etc... and expects gold to be good in the future. The "G" word always makes me cringe, but he makes good points.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/paradigm-shifts-ray-dalio/

[Drastic]

A Recession Is Coming (Eventually). Here's Where You'll See It First.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/28/business/economy/economy-recession.html

[Mackin USA]

(Eventually). Here's Where You'll See It First.

I will not be able to see it first...

I have my ad blocker on 

[Drastic]

Switch to ublock origin and they can't tell. Works great.

[Mackin USA]

DRAS:

TY
DONE

"Indicator 4: Consumer Sentiment"

[rcjordan]

Lowe's lays off thousands of assembly, maintenance workers
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2019/08/01/Lowes-lays-off-thousands-of-assembly-maintenance-workers/7311564694470/

[Mackin USA]

OMG

Bill Maher: 'I've Been Hoping for a Recession' to Get Rid of Trump

[littleman]

He is kinda speeding along the process.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-08-05/china-s-offshore-yuan-tumbles-past-7-per-dollar-to-record-low

[Mackin USA]

Beijing Risks Economic Self-Harm by Weaponizing the Yuan

https://www.wsj.com/articles/beijing-risks-economic-self-harm-by-weaponizing-the-yuan-11564983069?

[rcjordan]

HSBC to cut 4000 jobs
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-05/hsbc-ousts-flint-and-seeks-new-ceo-to-battle-tough-environment