Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)

[littleman]

$6 trillion gone in six days

[Mackin USA]

Still, the likely end-point of this outbreak will see it settle down as an endemic disease — one of the suite of respiratory viruses like influenza and the common cold that travel around the world year after year, with most of us regarding them as little more than a nuisance. Bloomberg via Yahoo

[ergophobe]

>>likely end point

The problem is that the end point can take a couple of centuries to reach for some diseases and others (the Plague) remain virulent even today. Basically, a disease becomes less virulent if the virulent form kills too regularly and too quickly for that strain to spread.

[Mackin USA]

Deepening Rout in Commodities Stokes Fears About World Economy

https://www.wsj.com/articles/deepening-rout-in-commodities-stokes-fears-about-world-economy-11583064001

[Drastic]

Redditor compiles a worldwide supplychain status post daily. 

Today's entry:
https://www.reddit.com/r/supplychain/comments/fc9ztk/covid19_update_2nd_march/

[littleman]

That's a great link Dras, thanks.

[littleman]

The Fed just hit the coronavirus panic button

[ergophobe]

Wrong thread...

[littleman]

Depends on how you look at it.  Fed as in Federal Reserve.

[ergophobe]

Sorry. I meant that I deleted my post b/c it was the wrong thread. I meant to add the Google/Amazon info to the coronavirus thread, though it could go here too

[Drastic]

https://www.reddit.com/r/supplychain/comments/few230/covid19_update_saturday_7th_march/

A few I picked though most of it is a good read:

Cases since yesterday-
...
- Italy: 4,636 (up 50.1%)
- Iran: 4,747 (up 62.5%)
- Germany: 639 (up 59.8%; 15 out of 16 states now have recorded infections)
- France: 613 (a jump of 50.0%)
- Japan: 408 (up 16.9%)
- Spain: 374 (up 43.8%)
- USA: 213 (up 43.9%)
...

"Chinese authorities say 76m workers have gone back to work (60% of the total workforce that left for the Chinese New Year)."

...

"The US may already be in a recession - Bloomberg reports (link) that New research from State Street Associates and Massachusetts Institute of Technology indicates that the U.S. economy was already vulnerable a recession before the virus outbreak; in January the chance of a recession was 70%. If stocks give up all their growth over the past 12 months the chance will rise to 80%. The Treasury yield curve was perilously close to inversion in January as well; Bloomberg explains that inversion of the yield curve - which long-term interest rates are lower than short-term ones - is a strong indicator of recession.)"
...

"Is China really back up to speed? - Caixing media, an independent Chinese media company, is reporting (Link) that local governments are fraudulently boosting electricity consumption and other metrics in order to meet tough new back-to-work targets. It adds that leaving lights and air conditioners on all day long in empty offices, turning on manufacturing equipment, faking staff rosters and even coaching factory workers to lie to inspectors are just some of the ways they helped manufacture flashy statistics on the resumption of business for local governments to report up the chain. Beijing is apparently tracking power consumption to identify whether companies are operational."

[littleman]

I really like the daily summaries this guy is doing.   Its crazy how the case numbers are out of date by the time their published.

[rcjordan]

^{Perfect storm.}

Dow futures drop 1,000 points as all-out oil price war adds to coronavirus stress
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/08/dow-futures-drop-700-points-as-all-out-oil-price-war-adds-to-coronavirus-stress.html

[littleman]

Likely to be a very rough day tomorrow.

[ergophobe]

I keep wondering if it's finally time to put some cash into the stock market.

I don't think we have hit Peak Fear yet. When the US is behaving like China and Italy with everything on lockdown, that, I would say, will be a buy signal... but I might not dare to part with my cash at that point, since I might have to actually spend it in that circumstance.