Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)

[Rupert]

https://www.business-live.co.uk/retail-consumer/list-shops-fallen-administration-2020-18177619

[ergophobe]

U.S. car rental company Hertz to lay off 10,000 staff on coronavirus hit - Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hertz-layoffs-idUSKBN2222XD

Hertz gave $16M in bonuses ahead of bankruptcy
Hertz Global Holdings Inc. paid more than $16 million in retention bonuses to senior managers, including its new chief executive, just days before it filed for bankruptcy Friday night.

The car-rental company said it agreed to pay a $700,000 bonus to Chief Executive Paul Stone, who was named to the post this month. Chief Financial Officer Jamere Jackson received $600,000 and Chief Marketing Officer Jodi Allen got $189,633, according to a Tuesday regulatory filing.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/hertz-gave-16m-in-bonuses-ahead-of-bankruptcy-2020-05-26

JC Penney too
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2020/05/18/jc-penney-executives-given-millions-of-dollars-in-bonuses-days-before-it-filed-for-bankruptcy/#7370df9154d5

[ergophobe]

For Economy, Worst of Coronavirus Shutdowns May Be Over
Recovering air travel, hotel bookings and mortgage applications are among the early signs the U.S. economy is slowly creeping back to life
https://www.wsj.com/articles/for-economy-worst-of-coronavirus-shutdowns-may-be-over-11590408000?mod=hp_lead_pos1

The outlook, however, is far from clear: Unemployment has still soared while business activity has plummeted, and the latest improvements are tied to potentially temporary factors, including emergency spending from Congress, declines in new U.S. COVID-19 cases and the gradual reopening of states.

[nffc]

>I think the March bottom was the bottom.

With respect, you done lost your mind.

The benchmark index is now 41.7% above that low, and less than 9% from its February all-time high level.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/03/this-is-the-greatest-50-day-rally-in-the-history-of-the-sp-500.html

[ergophobe]

The benchmark index is now 41.7% above that low, and less than 9% from its February all-time high level.

I would say the jury is still out and I'm still nervous. We won't really know for years. I'll be prepared to say I was wrong if we drop significantly below March, but I won't be prepared to say I was right until 2022. There's still a lot of uncertainty and a lot of stimulus sugar high. 

That said, the money I threw into an index fund when I made the above comment has had a 29% return thus far. If I had been less nervous, it would have been more money, but all I did is max out my IRA contribution. Still, so far it was better than sitting on the sidelines.

[ergophobe]

U.S. Unemployment Rate Fell to 13.3% in May
Payrolls rose by 2.5 million, suggesting jobs are returning
https://www.wsj.com/articles/may-jobs-report-coronavirus-2020-11591310177?mod=breakingnews

[littleman]

When the U.S. government's official jobs report for May came out on Friday, it included a note at the bottom saying there had been a major "error" and the unemployment rate likely should be higher than the widely report 13.3 percent rate.

The special note said that if this misclassification error had not occurred, the "overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported," meaning the unemployment rate would be about 16.3 percent for May.

https://www.stamfordadvocate.com/business/article/The-May-jobs-report-had-misclassification-error-15320999.php

[nffc]

No, the unemployment rate didn't really drop in May

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2020/06/08/no-the-unemployment-rate-didnt-really-drop-in-may/

[ergophobe]

Don't Lose the Thread. The Economy Is Experiencing an Epic Collapse of Demand.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/06/upshot/coronavirus-economic-crisis.html

You can already sense in the public debate over the economy that people are starting to lose the thread — viewing the slight rebound from epic collapse as a sign that a crisis has been averted. That certainly is the kind of optimism evident in the stock market, which is now down a mere 1.1 percent for the year.

But there are clear signs that the collapse of economic activity has set in motion problems that will play out over many months, or maybe many years. If not contained, they could cause human misery on a mass scale and create lasting scars for families.

The fabric of the economy has been ripped, with damage done to millions of interconnections — between workers and employers, companies and their suppliers, borrowers and lenders. Both the historical evidence from severe economic crises and the data available today point to enormous delayed effects.

[littleman]

It's official: The recession began in February

The longest economic expansion in American history is officially over. The National Bureau of Economic Research declared Monday that the recession began in February.
The economy collapsed so rapidly that NBER wasted no time in announcing a recession, a stark contrast to previous downturns when the body took upwards of a year to declare what most people already knew. This was the fastest that NBER has declared any recession since the group began formal announcements in 1979.
Social distancing requirements imposed to fight the pandemic have crushed broad swaths of the US economy, from airlines and cruise ships to restaurants and Broadway shows.
"The unprecedented magnitude of the decline in employment and production, and its broad reach across the entire economy, warrants the designation of this episode as a recession, even if it turns out to be briefer than earlier contractions," NBER wrote.

More than 42 million Americans have filed for unemployment benefits. Major companies including JCPenney, J.Crew and Hertz have filed for bankruptcy. And economists are predicting GDP imploded at an annualized rate of 40% during the second quarter.

[nffc]

UK economy shrinks record 20.4% in April

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53019360

[ergophobe]

"Investor sentiment has moved into the "extreme optimism" zone"
https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/market-perspective

Uh oh. Here we go again. I can't believe how fast stocks went from wildly overpriced to corrected to wildly overpriced.

[rcjordan]

The virus is over and we're dancing in the streets. Except, it is far from over.

[littleman]

>far from over.

Many are speculating that our current spike was from Memorial Day.  Just imagine what's about to unfold after the protests, rallies, convention and American population largely in fuck it mode.


>Here we go again

Fuck it mode won't last indefinitely.  I think part of what's happening is that institutional investors are coaxing retirees to catch their falling knives.

[rcjordan]

>Just imagine

Summer vacation at the beaches.