Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)

[littleman]

What Will Cause The Next Recession - Joseph Stiglitz - video

tl;dw:
Trump's protectionism, fiscal irresponsibility
China's debt
EU's stagnation

[rcjordan]

Peak Ford

Ford Motor Co to cut 10% of white-collar jobs as part of global restructuring - Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ford-motor-layoffs/ford-motor-co-cutting-about-10-of-global-salaried-workforce-idUSKCN1SQ1FV

[rcjordan]

Dressbarn is going out of business, to shut all 650 stores
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/20/dressbarn-is-going-out-of-business-to-shut-all-650-stores.html

[Mackin USA]

https://www.steel-technology.com/projects

[Mackin USA]

Jamie Oliver restaurant chains collapse

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48352026?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbcnews&ocid=socialflow_facebook&ns_source=facebook

[buckworks]

>> Dressbarn is going out of business, to shut all 650 stores

Yikes, I just bought some things from Dressbarn on our recent trip. They were a nice place to shop.

[Rupert]

British Steel on the brink with thousands of jobs at risk
https://www.ft.com/content/e11c8bee-7b94-11e9-81d2-f785092ab560

British Steel was braced to fall into administration as early as Wednesday with thousands of jobs at risk, after talks with the government over an emergency £75m loan to keep it afloat appeared all but dead.

[ergophobe]

Richmond Fed President: We could talk ourselves into a recession
https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/15/economy/economic-sentiment-recession/index.html

[littleman]

Dressbarn, CVS, Pier 1 and Topshop shuttering stores, pushing planned closures to 7,150

Already, more than 7,150 store closures have been announced by U.S. retailers in 2019, according to Coresight Research. And it's not even June. Last year, Coresight tracked 5,524 store closures, down more than 30% from an all-time record 8,139 closures announced in 2017. Meanwhile, Coresight has tracked 2,726 store opening announcements so far this year.

With the threat of additional tariffs taking effect on consumer-facing goods like apparel and footwear imported from China hanging over retailers, things could get even worse, according to one analyst. UBS' Jay Sole recently said in a note to clients: "The market is not realizing how much brick & mortar retail is incrementally struggling and how new 25% tariffs could force widespread store closures. ... We think potential 25% tariffs on Chinese imports could accelerate pressure on these [companies'] profit margins to the point where major store closures become a real possibility."

[rcjordan]

Boots plots hundreds of store closures in new retail blow | Sky News
https://news.sky.com/story/boots-plots-hundreds-of-store-closures-in-new-retail-blow-11730149

[Mackin USA]

Consumer Confidence in the United States > ALL TIME HIGH

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence?

[Drastic]

Yeah, after corecon, I've had to adjust my forecast. I hope my previous timeline in here is way off, and making a bit of a play now that it is off.

Some of this lately is more bricks-morgue related than econ overall.

[rcjordan]

> lately is more bricks-morgue related

Agreed. Mass habits & trends are morphing substantially ...restaurants, retail (malls|High St), particularly clothing (anywhere in the bricks, but clothing is in flux across the board online or offline), tourism.  It's hard to say where it's going to land, but Debbie says people are tired of the 70s-90s stuff and want new experiences & products.

[littleman]

>I've had to adjust my forecast.

Do you think it is farther away?

Consumer Confidence is a lagging indicator.

July 31 2007: Consumer confidence near 6-year high

[Drastic]

>Do you think it is farther away?

Yes, at least in a way. But really, I think we have a new normal. The revenue flows are there, but not making it down to lower & middle class as much any more. Things are adjusting, and when it settles we may be in for a bigger reckoning.

Markets, to me, seem abnormally stable for what has been going on in the world the last 6 months.

I am currently hoping for another good 4-5 years. Not necessarily great, but not bad or tanking.