Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)

[ergophobe]

The deficit is now expected to close in on $1 trillion this year, and then stay over $1 trillion for every year on the horizon.

Remember how shocking it was when the DEBT passed $1 trillion? That was 1982.

The last time there was a decrease of more than 5% was... 1995 to 2000. The time before that was after WWII. In 1946, it was 119% and by the 1970s, it was bouncing around between 31% and 35%. Now we're looking at 106% next year. Prior to 2016, we had hit 104% or more only three time: 1945, 1946, 1947.

https://www.thebalance.com/national-debt-by-year-compared-to-gdp-and-major-events-3306287

[littleman]

It is complete fiscal irresponsibility --  basically Baby Boomers robbing Millennials.

[littleman]

Manufacturing sector contracted for the first time since 2009

US consumer sentiment for August comes in well below estimates

[Mackin USA]

There could be a  "Recession" in the 1st year of his second term.

[Mackin USA]

The Next Recession Will Destroy Millennials

"The trade war is dragging on. The yield curve is inverting. Investors are fleeing to safety. Global growth is slowing. The stock market is dipping. The Millennials are screwed."

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/08/millennials-are-screwed-recession/596728/

[littleman]

As a father I try to strike a balance when it comes to what I tell my kids about my political and economic outlooks of the future.  They are definitely inheriting a mess caused by the laziness and selfishness of previous generations.  So far, the adult ones have done a good job of not getting into debt.  I try to get them to think about practicality of career choices in tough times ahead.  There is only so much one can do.

[littleman]

Corporate insiders have sold an average of $600 million of stock per day in August, according to TrimTabs Investment Research, which tracks stock market liquidity.

August is on track to be the fifth month of the year in which insider selling tops $10 billion. The only other times that has happened was 2006 and 2007, the period before the last bear market in stocks

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/26/investing/stock-market-insider-selling/index.html

[ergophobe]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-09-09/a-manufacturing-recession-could-cost-trump-a-second-term

About 250 Kuhn employees spent the Labor Day holiday caught in a two-week furlough, and they're facing another in early October. A shrinking order book means Kuhn is cutting costs and slashing production as Petras and his managers peer out at a U.S. economy that looks far bleaker from the swing-state heartland than it does in either the White House or on Wall Street.

[littleman]

Household debt bombs

[Mackin USA]

you can add Student Debt to the DEBT BOMB 

[littleman]

Yeah, it is over 1.5 trillion.  My kids have so far spent their lower division at community college to keep their experiences low.

Even more crazy is the auto loan debt, it is approaching the same amount and is something completely avoidable.

[ergophobe]

My kids have so far spent their lower division at community college to keep their experiences low.

I hope you meant expenses ;-)

Seriously, my nephew did this and then transferred to a well-known engineering school and now makes a nice living in Silicon Valley and started his working life with very little student debt. It's a great plan.

[littleman]

As a father, hopefully both! 

[Mackin USA]

https://news.gallup.com/poll/266960/economic-confidence-drops-lowest-level-shutdown.aspx

[littleman]

Americans' confidence in the economy has become less rosy this month as Gallup's Economic Confidence Index fell to +17 from August's +24 reading, marking the lowest level since the government shutdown ended in January.

At the same time, the public is evenly divided over the likelihood of a recession in the next year. The current expectation of a recession is nine points higher than it was in October 2007, just two months before the Great Recession began but slightly below a February 2001 reading, one month before that eight-month-long recession.

In my own little circle it seems most are oblivious.  I've seen a lot of new car purchases, a lot of debt being stacked on.  It is probably where I live.