Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)

[littleman]

That's what the Terminator thread sort of evolved into.

Imagine that thing malfunctioning.

[Brad]

I'm having my annual meeting with my Edward Jones broker.  This thread has gotten to me, so I'm going to tell him to shift to circling the wagons.

[littleman]

Billionaire Warren Buffett Is Predicting a Stock Market Crash; Is He Right?

The Oracle of Omaha's Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK) had cashed out nearly 60% of its investment portfolio at the end of June according to an SEC filing. The $122 billion cash pile is unusual for Buffett, who typically puts his money to work through acquisitions, stock buybacks or equity purchases.

[littleman]

Global economy faces $19tn corporate debt timebomb, warns IMF

Low interest rates are encouraging companies to take on a level of debt that risks becoming a $19tn (£15tn) timebomb in the event of another global recession, the International Monetary Fund has said.

In its half-yearly update on the state of the world's financial markets, the IMF said that almost 40% of the corporate debt in eight leading countries – the US, China, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy and Spain – would be impossible to service if there was a downturn half as serious as that of a decade ago.

[littleman]

Weak U.S. retail sales cast shadow over slowing economy

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales fell for the first time in seven months in September, suggesting that manufacturing-led weakness could be spreading to the broader economy, keeping the door open for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again later this month.

The downbeat report from the Commerce Department on Wednesday came on the heels of data this month showing a moderation in job growth and services sector activity in September. Signs of cracks in the economy's main pillar of support, ahead of the holiday season, could further stoke financial market fears of a sharper slowdown in economic growth.

[Mackin USA]

Nordstrom seven-story, 320,000-square-foot space offers a glimpse into the future of retail.

Seems they are bucking the trend.

https://www.elledecor.com/shopping/a29550435/nordstrom-manhattan-flagship/

[rcjordan]

"With the probability of a recession looming large, consumers can be expected to play it safe and not go for big-ticket purchases. That's bad news for the US housing market."

The U.S. Housing Market Crash Is Officially Here
https://www.ccn.com/u-s-housing-market-crash-officially-here/

[Mackin USA]

https://www.realtor.com/research/2019-national-housing-forecast/

ADDED, But
https://www.wsj.com/articles/once-asking-250-million-americas-onetime-priciest-home-sells-for-less-11571943798

[littleman]

The top article is a year old, I wonder how correct they were?

[littleman]

The US economy is slowing

The economy was helped by growing consumer and government spending, but the pace of growth decelerated. Americans spent less on cars, continuing a trend that has been ongoing for a year.*

But Americans also spent less on clothing and footwear. The Trump administration hit some Chinese imports of clothes and shoes with tariffs during the summer.
Nevertheless, the report beat analyst expectations. Economists polled by Refinitiv expected growth to be as slow as 1.6% ahead of the release.

I guess 1.9% is god news these days.

*Anecdotally, as I've said elsewhere, I am seeing a bunch of new cars on the road.  It would be interesting to see a map of where new cars are selling.  I feel like Californians are oblivious the the economic risks at the moment.

[Mackin USA]

Yahoo Finance• November 4, 2019

Stocks have canceled the 2020 recession

https://beta.finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-have-canceled-the-2020-recession-111918255.html

[littleman]

The 'mother of all bubbles' could blow up the economy if profits don't improve, warns Blackstone strategist

I don't know, we'll see.   

[littleman]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/06/us-industrial-productivity-labor-costs-q3-2019.html

[Rupert]

Recent in the UK:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/mothercare-close-uk-stores-jobs-loss-administration-a9187546.html

also heard a family who had people working at Peacocks were worried about their jobs.

The oldest department store in the UK closed its doors in Derby recently.  Bennetts.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-50027472

[Drastic]

Anecdotal, but pretty strong here that a lot of people are nervous, and cashflow is tightening a bit.

If we didn't talk ourselves into already, we're walking that way now.