Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)

[rcjordan]

More than 1,700 stores are closing in 2020 as the retail apocalypse drags on. Here's the full list.
https://www.businessinsider.com/stores-closing-in-2020-list-2020-1

[Mackin USA]

Store closings are a reflection of the change in consumer buying habits.

Do they effect the GDP is the question when it comes to recession.

[rcjordan]

Economy in a Nutshell: Manufacturing in Recession. Services Booming.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/10/upshot/economy-in-a-nutshell-manufacturing-in-recession-services-booming.html

[littleman]

The manufacturing recession underway shows up in the employment numbers: The nation's factories shed 12,000 jobs in December, with the steepest loss in the making of fabricated metal products. A further 8,000 jobs were lost in the mining sector, reflecting a slump in spending on energy exploration. Transportation and warehousing employment fell by 10,400, another potential knock-on effect of the manufacturing slump.

This story is not too complicated: The sectors that bear the brunt of the global economic slowdown and the trade wars are cutting jobs, or at least they were in December.

Lots of low level service job growth, but I'd like to see a map of where those jobs are.  I have a suspicion that the places hit the most from the decline in skilled labor jobs aren't opening too many Starbucks.

[littleman]

More on the topic.

In a recent analysis, we found that 53 million workers ages 18 to 64—or 44% of all workers—earn barely enough to live on. Their median earnings are $10.22 per hour, and about $18,000 per year. These low-wage workers are concentrated in a relatively small number of occupations, including retail sales, cooks, food and beverage servers, janitors and housekeepers, personal care and service workers (such as child care workers and patient care assistants), and various administrative positions.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2020/01/08/low-unemployment-isnt-worth-much-if-the-jobs-barely-pay/

[ergophobe]

>> 44% of all workers—earn barely enough to live on

That is a damning statistic for one of the richest societies in the history of the world.

[Mackin USA]

There's Almost No Chance of a Recession This Year, Experts Say. Here's Why.

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/why-markets-will-gain-despite-looming-risks-barrons-roundtable-panelists-say-51578707631

[Drastic]

I've been saying this for years, commercial properties are not an asset, they are a liability.

Care to expound this a bit?

[littleman]

I hope he chimes in, but I am going to guess.   When the economy tanks people still need a place to live but stores/businesses close down and the property owner is stuck paying the mortgage/insurance/taxes on an empty building.

During the last recessions when there were tons of empty buildings rents were actually going up in some parts as people lost their homes and put upwards pressure on rentals.

[Mackin USA]

Home Sales, Housing Starts Seen Rising in 2020
Among the positive demand factors are: solid job gains, historically low mortgage rates and above-trend household formations.


https://www.builderonline.com/money/economics/home-sales-housing-starts-seen-rising-in-2020_o

[ergophobe]

>>above-trend household formations

This maps to your previous comment about how millennials are finally starting to fuel household formation.

The one thing that I find is how many of those millennials are planning on forming permanent two-person households. Of course, when my brother got married, he swore he didn't want kids... then one day he did.

[littleman]

This is interesting, seems the consumer is a lagging indicator.

Consumers and corporate chieftains are heading in the opposite direction, with one group still brimming with good thoughts about the future and the other sure that tougher times are coming.

Recent surveys exemplify a trend that began a few years ago and has accelerated over the past several months. The gap between sentiment is broad and growing, though there's some reason to believe that a change could be coming.

Chief executive officers and chief financial officers see an economy that is heading into a slowdown if not an outright recession. Recent surveys show that CEOs believe recession is the biggest risk in 2020, while almost all CFOs surveyed by Deloitte think the economy is likely to at least slow.

They view the U.S.-China trade war, a slowing global picture and increasing headline political risks as threats to the decadelong expansion that is the longest in American history.

But consumers are in the opposite camp.

While sentiment has leveled off from record highs, they still view conditions as generally positive. Spending remains strong even amid a growing savings rate, as consumers remain the beneficiary of a 50-year low in the unemployment rate and historic highs for the stock market.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/09/ceo-confidence-in-economy-has-cratered-consumers-say-things-are-ok.html

[rcjordan]

>consumer sentiment

It's a sugar high.

Families Still Drowning In Consumer Debt, Adding To Financial Insecurity
https://www.forbes.com/sites/christianweller/2020/01/18/families-still-drowning-in-consumer-debt-adding-to-financial-insecurity/

[littleman]

>It's a sugar high.

U.S. Economic Confidence at Highest Point Since 2000


National Debt Increased by $3 Trillion Over the Past Three Years

[littleman]

The Corona virus may change the equation.  We have lots of supply chains being disrupted and travel curtailed.