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#41
Water Cooler / 2026 aug 18
Last post by rcjordan - August 19, 2026, 12:10:27 AM
Google is using a $29 gadget to tighten its grip on Android users - TheStreet
https://www.thestreet.com/technology/google-is-using-a-29-gadget-to-tighten-its-grip-on-android-users

Earth's Chemistry Did Something Strange Right Before Its Biggest Mass Extinctions : ScienceAlert
https://www.sciencealert.com/critical-transition-earths-chemistry-wobbled-during-its-5-biggest-mass-extinctions

California approves new rules for replacement tires - KCRA
https://www.kcra.com/article/california-energy-commission-tire-efficiency-rules/73456508

Swedish MP intervenes in 'damaging' Brexit row over elderly Britons ordered to leave | Brexit | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/aug/18/swedish-mp-intervenes-brexit-row-elderly-britons-ordered-leave

#42
Water Cooler / Re: 2026 aug 15-16
Last post by ergophobe - August 19, 2026, 12:06:39 AM
> Please no. Not ever.

I think this is indicative of the aging of Meta, or rather decision makers being from a particular cohort. The youngest people seem to be more aware of the need to curate what goes online. The older generations are mostly more careful too.

I don't know how solid any of this is, but that's what the ether tells me and it tracks with what they Gen Zs tell me.

The Rise of Zero-Posting: Gen Z's disentanglement from social media.
https://wineculturelab.com/the-rise-of-zero-posting-gen-zs-disentanglement-from-social-media/

Gen Z is the most guarded generation yet - this is why they're so scared of sharing online
https://www.indy100.com/viral/gen-z-instagram-habits-sharing-online

" New polling shows that nearly a third of all social media users post less than they did a year ago. That trend is especially true for adults in Gen Z."
https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20250722-social-media-user-changes-kyle-chayka-katty-kay-interview
#43
Water Cooler / Re: 2026 aug 17
Last post by ergophobe - August 18, 2026, 11:53:45 PM
> here to stay

"First, AI has been destroying jobs and will continue to do so. Research house Forrester, for example, predicts that by 2030 AI will wipe out 10.4 million US jobs."

There is a difference between an event that HAS happened and a prediction about what WILL happen.

"important to distinguish AI-generated content from human-created material, yet 53 percent lacked confidence that they could reliably do so"

I think we can say that the 53% who lack confidence that they can reliably distinguish AI content are the 53% who actually use AI and know what AI is producing. The 47% who are confident are the ones who have no idea what is and what isn't AI-generated.

The 47% likely also includes people who used ChatGPT in 2024, decided it hallucinates all the time, and have never used it again, but insist that the output is rife with hallucinations.

QUESTIONS: Can you reliably distinguish AI content from human content? Do you feel that the current frontier models still hallucinate a lot?

I would say definitely no to both.

Of course, LLMs do sometimes hallucinate, but this is more and more like the Waymo Problem. Waymo is way safer than humans, but many people will not get into a car without a driver. Similarly, humans "hallucinate" all the time* in conversation, but people freak out if in a casual chat with an LLM it mixes up some facts.

*Human hallucinations such as:

"I know I put my car keys on the shelf, but they aren't there."
"I recently read a study that said 4 out of 5 Ozempic users experienced migraines."
"No, you said you were going to be there from 7pm on."
etc, etc, etc

The prevalence of human hallucinations is why the watchphrase for historical scholarship (and of Renaissance humanists) is (was) ad fontes - to the sources. It's also why my research group quit releasing preliminary work to friends in the scholarly community with the proviso that everything must be checked before being cited. It turned out that many people couldn't be bothered.
#44
Water Cooler / Re: 2026 aug 17
Last post by ergophobe - August 18, 2026, 11:43:35 PM
> cancer

According to Derya Unutmaz in this podcast interview
https://www.foundmyfitness.com/episodes/derya-unutmaz

some guy sequenced the genome of his dog from healthy tissues and a tumor, then had one of the AI models analyze the two and suggest a molecule (a protein I guess?) that he could target, then ordered an mRNA vaccine that targeted the molecule, injected the dog, cured the tumor.

Unverified.


>> including the fears, insecurities and private details

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ministries_in_Nineteen_Eighty-Four#Room_101

>> ELSD

Maybe so. I think that's true. People want to sound "reasonable." There is another factor that has resulted in early predictions being off: up until about 1990, all the models assumed that once the science was clear, governments would act. But after James Hansen's 1988 testimony before Congress, the Koch brothers and some others realized that the science WAS clear and they poured huge amounts of money into casting doubt on it, which led to a lot of delay in taking action.

In other words, the models were reasonably close on the question of how temperature would rise for a given amount of carbon, but they made rosy predictions about how alarmed people would get.

#45
Water Cooler / Re: On Mount Shasta, a photogr...
Last post by ergophobe - August 18, 2026, 10:39:47 PM
Sad. I first skied on Shasta in 1996. Last was there around 2003.

There's a climb I did in mid-1990s in the Alps on the North Face of Mont Blanc du Cheilon. When we did it in March, it was a mixed climb, meaning snow and ice and rock with some pretty hard/scary sections that involved scraping through a couple of inches of rock to get to something you could hook with the pick of an ice axe.

An old timer told us later that when he did it in the 1970s, he did it in the summer casually kicking his way up snow from bottom to top. The Swiss Alpine Club site says:

"The central north face was once heavily covered with ice and firn, but today it is rather more rocky, which is why alpinists who venture there do so in the winter"
https://www.sac-cas.ch/en/huts-and-tours/sac-route-portal/mont-blanc-de-cheilon-367/alpinism/

[BTW ... my eyes have been a giving me issues lately, so not on screens or reading as much lately. Time to see the ophthalmologist]
#46
Economics & Investing / Re: Covert Mideast Oil Flows A...
Last post by Brad - August 18, 2026, 04:12:50 PM
Sure, sure NOW everybody loves the smugglers. 
#47
Water Cooler / Re: 2026 aug 17
Last post by rcjordan - August 18, 2026, 01:05:37 AM
Some, but not all....

Be a hater all you want, AI's here to stay
https://www.theregister.com/columnists/2026/08/17/be-a-hater-all-you-want-ais-here-to-stay/5288275

Anthropic's annualized revenue surges to $65B | TechCrunch
https://techcrunch.com/2026/08/17/anthropics-annualized-revenue-surges-to-65b/
#48
Water Cooler / Re: 2026 aug 17
Last post by rcjordan - August 18, 2026, 12:58:44 AM
AAAaaaccckkk!

Reddit's AI is turning posts into podcasts and short videos | The Verge
https://www.theverge.com/tech/981289/reddit-ai-text-video-posts
#49
Water Cooler / Re: 2026 aug 17
Last post by rcjordan - August 17, 2026, 10:07:55 PM
Chinese scientists achieve record-breaking 24.0% efficieny for large-area perovskite solar modules - pv magazine Global
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2026/08/17/chinese-scientists-achieve-record-breaking-24-0-efficieny-for-meter-scale-perovskite-solar-modules/

Section 232 minimum import prices force foreign solar to match U.S. production costs - pv magazine Global
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2026/08/17/section-232-minimum-import-prices-force-foreign-solar-to-match-u-s-production-costs/
#50
Water Cooler / Re: 2026 aug 17
Last post by rcjordan - August 17, 2026, 09:33:16 PM

► Climate scientists are not alarmists but have underestimated recent climate changes.
► We identify a directional bias toward erring on the side of least drama (ESLD).
► ESLD is an internal pressure arising from norms of objectivity, restraint, etc.
► ESLD may cause scientists to underpredict or downplay future climate changes.

Climate change prediction: Erring on the side of least drama? - ScienceDirect
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959378012001215