My sketchy, longer-term models match up with Vortex, but Vortex currently (04/11am EDT) only goes as far as mid-Cuba --the last green dot is about where Irma turns N-NE.   By 5 or 11 pm, we should see a green dot heading north-ish if the sketchy models are right.

Oh yeah, and the long-term shows yet another tropical storm or hurricane roughly following in Irma's track --looks like 4 or 5 days behind it.  No forecasted wind speeds available for that one that I can find yet.

Hoo boy!

Publix already out of water. 

KWEL SITE
http://www.spaghettimodels.com/

Hurricane Irma now powerful Category 5 storm
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/09/05/hurricane-irma-now-powerful-category-5-storm-florida-declares-state-emergency.html

>spaghettimodels

Nice find. Bookmarked.

My long-term track guidance is now showing it plowing up the center of Florida. *BUT* these have changed with every 12hr update as Irma moves further west into the Gulf.  Definitely sketchy.  The only thing that's been consistent is the northward hook.

>plowing up the center of Florida

That bright green line is problematic.

Other than that if it goes all the way up through Florida like this I would assume the storm would lose some of its steam by the time it got up to us. Probably still a lot of rain but the wind wouldn't necessarily be as destructive. Am i just fooling myself?

Yes, since large bodies of hot water fuels them, they lose power over land.

>rain

I've not heard of any 'feeder bands' ^{like Harvey had} associated with Irma so far, so I wouldn't expect the 50" rainfalls. Probably 15-ish, but that's just a guess.

<added>
>>these have changed with every 12hr update as Irma moves further west into the Gulf

> large bodies of hot water fuels them

One more tick to the west and Tampa-St. Pete is fucked.  IMO, it'd then be a reasonable scenario for a Cat 5 to make landfall there.

Northern hook shown on 11am Vortex.  Good-bye FL keys.

>Northern hook shown on 11am Vortex.  Good-bye FL keys.

Guessing Napels-Ft. Meyers are getting hammered too.

Looks like this could follow the same path as Charley once it hits Florida. Land around Ft. Meyers, head up just east of Orlando and hit the ocean around Palm Coast or St. Augustine. 

>Ft. Meyers

Ft. Meyers has drainage problems if they have a heavy dew. No telling what'll happen if they get a monsoon.  The dike around Lake Okeechobee would be another big issue, I'd think.

1928 storm smashed dike, drowned nearly 2,000 near Lake Okeechobee
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sns-hc-history-1928-story.html

We tend to think about destruction of buildings & infrastructure. What most people don't realize is that storms of this magnitude _particularly slow-moving ones_ have the potential to change landforms.  Islands come & go at their whim, for example. Just north of where Trav lives, there is a large peninsula called "Willoughby Spit."  It was formed by a hurricane. Never ceases to strike me with fearful awe every time I go through there.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willoughby_Spit

And we are back to the East side of the state. Would like this to make another tick East. Looking a bit too close for comfort. Miami/FLL isn't looking good right now.

I'm about 100 yards East of the 's' on Port Everglades.  

Mandatory evacuation, all around me; everyone East of US1 is supposed to get out on Thursday.