We'll see if it happens. Snowfalls in Mammoth are legendary and they did get that much in a week back in 2017. Usually NOAA estimates high just to keep people from doing stupid things.

Mammoth is only 40 miles away and just slightly higher than us, but in between the peaks rise up an additional 7000 feet or so and Mammoth is tucked under the east side of those peaks. So there's a strange vortex there. I'm not sure I have this right, but apparently the compression going over the mountains creates a Venturi effect and when the air gets past that, there's a pressure drop, which means both that temperatures fall and the air can hold less moisture. So it gets dumped in huge amounts on Mammoth Mountain and Mammoth Lakes. And then about 15 miles further east, you're in one of the most arid regions in the country and snowfall totals will likely be less than a foot.

I'm hoping that here we just get two feet, then a break, then more snow in the next wave. Up to about 2 is usually not very disruptive. If we have a few days to clean up we can get a few of those in relatively quick succession with big issues. But a single storm of four feet is a problem. Once we get over 3 feet, things start to shut down and chaos ensues. One Christmas we got two feet, then five days later two feet, then five days later four feet... that was a backbreaker.

Christmas tornadoes.

Dozens are feared dead as tornadoes hit Midwestern and Southern U.S. : NPR
https://www.npr.org/2021/12/11/1063335433/dozens-are-feared-dead-as-tornadoes-hit-midwestern-and-southern-u-s


It's going to reach 75f^24c here today. Crazy.

'Really abnormal' storms and tornadoes tear through Great Plains and midwest | Iowa | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/dec/16/great-plains-storms-tornadoes-tear-through-midwest

>>We'll see if it happens

Storm came in a lot warmer than forecast, which meant early rain and denser snow, so we only got two feet. That's a good amount - gets some moisture in the snowpack and doesn't cause total chaos (four feet generally causes chaos)

Lake Tahoe shatters 50-year December snowfall record with more than 16 feet of snow

>>16 feet of snow

Two of my bosses have houses up in the Tahoe area and have been posting pictures of some of the snowfalls. Very impressive. And they are both big time skiers so they are loving it.

My friend who lives there says she is "over it." She teaches skiing at Northstar. It's 15 mins from her house. It's taking her 3 hours to get home every day.

We only have 3-4 feet at the house. We were skiing up at 8000 feet during the middle storm and it was raining up there. If it had been a few degrees colder, we'd be socked in like Tahoe.

>crazy

It has been 65-70f ^{(20 over normal)} here for about 5 days now and forecast to remain that way for another week.  It's been long enough that locals are breaking out their boats and hitting the water.

>> Tahoe

https://weather.com/storms/winter/video/more-than-100-of-snow-in-ca-skiers-travelers-stranded

Dispatch from a friend: It's getting bad here. No gasoline. Not much food. Even Reno has food issues

>Mammoth Mountain

Howitzer, 105mm artillery gun, used by ski patrol to clear avalanche hazards
https://old.reddit.com/r/specializedtools/comments/rs3edu/howitzer_105mm_artillery_gun_used_by_ski_patrol/

That's gotta be fun. A friend was a certified blaster on ski patrol. Similar thing, but they work from the top and essentially toss sticks of dynamite on a tether. If they don't get detonation, there's some protocol for getting it back without killing someone.