https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-peak-oil-era-is-suddenly-upon-us/

Yeah, I do not think that Denmark was necessarily being altruist when it announced the end of all oil & gas exploration in 30 years. Rather, I think they are planning for the eventual loss of most of the oil market.

http://th3core.com/talk/economics-investing/denmark-has-announced-it-will-end-all-oil-and-gas-exploration-by-2050/

Climate tipping point? ExxonMobil's shareholder revolt and the end of the line for fossil fuels | Salon.com

https://www.salon.com/2021/05/28/climate-tipping-point-exxonmobils-shareholder-revolt-and-the-end-of-the-line-for-fossil-fuels/

That was a big single day with the Dutch Shell/BP decision and the Chevron shareholder revolt too. BlackRock's change of position last year is turning out to be huge. I didn't realize how much of Exxon they owned.

^{Goodbye, and thanks for all the oil!}

US cutting forces, missile batteries in Middle East
https://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/414592/World/Region/US-cutting-forces,-missile-batteries-in-Middle-Eas.aspx

<warp>

BREAKING: Another lease sale failure in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge

https://environmentamerica.org/updates/breaking-another-lease-sale-failure-in-the-arctic-national-wildlife-refuge/

All 50 leases would be $96 million and 95% failed?

I wonder how much is the pure economics and how much is fear that a new admin will revoke them.

>I wonder how much is the pure economics and how much is fear that a new admin will revoke them.

It is the same thing in a way.  You can't remove the risk from the economic equation.  Also, crystal balling is getting harder.  Like what is the conflict around the strait of Hormuz going to do to oil consumption in the next couple of years?  Getting oil that isn't from a war zone is good for people who produce elsewhere.  Yet, I am sure EV sales are going to increase due to supply issues and once a consumer switches to EV, they are permanently consuming less oil.

Right. Let me phrase that better

Maybe put it this way: would those leases have sold if they knew current policies would hold for the life of the lease?

That is, does expensive extraction in the Arctic pencil out even under a favorable administration?

The world still uses a lot of fossil fuel, but last year was the first time new contributions from renewables exceeded the growth in demand. A year doesn't make a trend, but as you say, events of this year are likely to accelerate that process. The whole argument about solar not working on cloudy days looks different when stacked against oil shipments that don't flow for a year