US population set to shrink by 2033 without immigration, CBO says

[rcjordan]

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/business/article302944754.html

[buckworks]

Smaller population --> not a bad thing.

Depending on how it's achieved, of course!

[rcjordan]

>not a bad thing.
>Depending

Agree.  Thanos had the right idea, just poorly executed it.

That said, every 1st world country depends on population growth to fund damn near everything.  (Musk is right about Ponzi Scheme programs but the alternatives seem worse.)

Capitalism depends on it, too.  New housing construction would tank, for instance.

[buckworks]

>> New housing construction would tank

FWIW, existing housing stock has lots of scope for upgrading and maintenance work.

It's nuts for anyone to assume that society can simply keep growing without limits. Infinite growth on a finite planet isn't a recipe for good long term results.

It would make a lot more sense for our economic activity and creative energies to aim at sustainability.

[rcjordan]

>lots of scope for upgrading and maintenance work.

That would keep the big dog New Construction builders for maybe a month, hhh.

The great majority of the contractors I've known only want new work.

[Travoli]

>Smaller population --> not a bad thing.

Oof the deficit burden.

[ergophobe]

> deficit burden.

Entitlements burden too. The math is genuinely scary on both counts.

> only want new work.

"Two years ago, we would never have taken a job building a deck, but now we're happy to get it."
 -- contractor who built my house in 2006 during a catchup in 2010.

>  growth

I know RC will run from the forum screaming if I say he should listen to a podcast, but others might find this interesting from a couple days ago

https://www.npr.org/2025/03/28/1241388988/radiolab-economic-growth-resources-gdp

Will we run out of stuff? Hard to say. As the Saudi minister said, the Stone Age didn't end because we ran out of stones.

All indications are that human populations will fall by late this century, the questions are

 - can we make it through the danger zone where we have high population and limited technology?

 - can we make it if everyone wants to live like people do in rich countries?

Population growth is far less of a problem than consumption growth. Every resident of a rich country counts 10X to 100X in terms of impact on the planet compared to those in the poorest countries, but my hope is that we can advance technologically fast enough so that the poor can live well without utterly destroying the planet. I don't think it's morally acceptable to say that only some people on the planet can live well.

[Travoli]

>listen to a podcast

Some podcast apps (Apple & Spotify, for example) offer full transcripts right in the episode details screens. You can read them like a Kindle book.