These 40 jobs are safer; these 40 jobs not

[ergophobe]

https://www.inc.com/bruce-crumley/microsoft-study-identifies-jobs-most-and-least-affected-by-ai/91221483

Debbie says that in 20 years, this list will circulate wherever viral things circulate so that people can snicker at how naive people were in 2025.

[littleman]

Looking at the list it seems that the reasoning is if it could be done on a keyboard, kiosk or online it will be done by AI.  If it has to be done in person, or requires physical labor while thinking on your feet it is safe for now.

[ergophobe]

I think that's correct and I think that is a very narrow view of what AI automation can do.

I think lots of jobs will disappear on *both* lists and that there will be a lot of jobs on both lists left. It depends a lot on how AI/automation plays out. If the benefits are distributed that will lead to a very different future than if the benefits are concentrated.

Just to take a few examples...

 - Concierge. My experience with hotel concierge staff is that the adequate and bad ones do a much worse job currently than a chatbot does currently. As much as ChatGPT hallucinates, the people at the concierge desk often hallucinated much worse (e.g. commonly recommending an "nice dog-friendly walk" that was actually *illegal* and, if the rangers were in a bad mood, could result in a $280 citation). But a really good concierge can do things that a chatbot never will be able to do simply because that person can interact with the physical world and get things done (ideally, aided by a chatbot so they can stop sending people on illegal walks).

 - Archivists - this one surprises me. AI is a long long way from replacing the types of archivists that I worked with a lot.

Meanwhile...

 - Machine Feeders and Offbearers - this seems like a job that is disappearing so fast in BYD plants that I can't imagine there will be any left, but I can imagine that a chatbot does poorly at answering questions on this topic (the criterion used for drafting the list) because a lot of the required skill here comes through observation, oral explanation and hands-on training, so the chatbots haven't had a lot of exposure to text on how to unload an X machine.