Perfect Storm: energy, finance, and the end of growth

[buckworks]

I've just read a thought-provoking PDF from a British financial house about the state of the world economy:

http://www.tullettprebon.com/Documents/strategyinsights/TPSI_009_Perfect_Storm_009.pdf

It's dismal but vital reading, which begs the question of how we can adapt our businesses and our lives to new realities.

[ergophobe]

The old wisdom still holds true - if you can solve the energy side of the equation, you can solve the rest. If you can't, you can't.

Unfortunately, solutions to these huge structural problems, if they are still possible, require serious long-term thinking and a turn away from the deficit-based prosperity of the last 60 years. I'm not very optimistic.

[ergophobe]

http://longnow.org/

[Rupert]

Facinating. 
The perfect Storm has some interesting points.  I love the idea of the money markets not being about money, but energy.

I think they are just wrong in some of the later presumptions. The Assumption that wind has a better EROEI than Solar... and Nuclear EROEI is so poor it is not worth considering interesting. 

I tend to think that energy is all around us, its just a matter of how to harness it. Not like this nutter either http://www.keshefoundation.org/. In solar, using heat pumps (Ground source) etc.  converting excess to hydrogen (Given there is no sensible storage solution yet)


  A friend of mine is building a new Vets practice, that will run on 1kwhr. Its a big practice... We can be more efficient.


Also shale gas has not been mentioned. The UK reserves are said by some to be 3 times the size of North Sea oil.. Thats by the Geologists involved (Yes it is a guess, but the best educated guess). And it is an estimate of the amount we can get out  with current technology.

So doomsday scenario... hold for now. 

More concerning is the killing off of our species.  I understand even sharks are under threat.

[Rupert]

I do think the western economies are shrinking though. That we are in denial. But that it is necessary to get rid of the debt. 

That said, I am not an economist, but an engineer.

[grnidone]

>But that it is necessary to get rid of the debt. 

AMEN to that!  I'm not an economist.  I'm just a geek.  And I know that when I've got some savings in the bank AND when I'm keeping to a budget, I'm a happier person who is better able to take care of "Murphy situations" when they happen.

How is it that western countries do not have this same thinking?  Why is it wrong to have a government surplus?  I'm not saying a HUGE surplus, just a small so that if crap happens, we've got a little leeway.  How is it that governments can just "rob Peter to pay Paul" and get away with it?

*shakes head*

Much of the issue with wind AND solar energy is that there isn't a good way to convert and store the energy.  There is a tremendous amount of loss.  Once this can be fixed, then the EROEI will increase on both.