Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)

[Mackin USA]

The economy will survive. It does every year!

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

[littleman]

>The economy will survive. It does every year!

No doubt, the sky isn't falling.  What I'm wondering is if this may be enough to slow down the global economy to the point of negative growth.   Manufacturing is already in recession.

[littleman]

U.S. farm bankruptcies hit an eight-year high

According to data released this week by the United States Courts, family farmers filed 595 Chapter 12 bankruptcies in 2019, up from 498 filings a year earlier. The data also shows that such filings - known as "family farmer" bankruptcies - have steadily increased every year for the past five years.

Eurozone economy barely growing at all

[Drastic]

https://www.patentlyapple.com/patently-apple/2020/02/apple-joins-starbucks-and-mcdonalds-corp-in-closing-all-mainland-china-apple-stores-until-at-least-february-9.html

Most/almost all countries closing borders to china, airlines shutting down and now these all-mainland retailers. This is definitely going to hurt China, maybe just a bump for the rest of us.

[Mackin USA]

"just a bump"

YEP

[rcjordan]

>bump 

A $174 billion bump, for starters.

China to inject US$174 billion of liquidity into markets amid new coronavirus outbreak | South China Morning Post
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3048618/china-inject-us174-billion-liquidity-markets-amid-new

[littleman]

>just a bump

China oil demand has plunged 20% on coronavirus lockdown; biggest shock since global financial crisis

Chinese oil demand has dropped by about three million barrels a day, or 20 per cent of total consumption, as the coronavirus squeezes the economy, according to people with inside knowledge of the country's energy industry.

The drop is probably the largest demand shock the oil market has suffered since the global financial crisis of 2008 to 2009, and the most sudden since the Sept 11 attacks. It could force the hand of the Opec cartel, which is considering an emergency meeting to cut production and staunch the decline in prices, which are headed for the lowest close in a year.

We're still in the very early stages.

[Mackin USA]

Chinese Stocks Are Tanking as Markets Reopen. Why U.S. Stocks Are Rising.

https://beta.finance.yahoo.com/m/c35b3166-4fe8-347c-bd59-44d7a63bc437/chinese-stocks-are-tanking-as.html

[rcjordan]

Investors should prepare for 'soberingly low' returns - MarketWatch

"expected the real return of the traditional U.S. portfolio — 60% stocks to 40% bonds — over the next five to 10 years to be 2.4%" ^(oooph!)

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-a-top-hedge-fund-manager-says-investors-should-prepare-for-soberingly-low-returns-2020-02-03

[rcjordan]

'"It is big. It's going to paralyze China. It's going to cascade throughout the global economy," said the Allianz chief economic advisor.'

El-Erian says coronavirus to 'paralyze China,' don't buy stock dips

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/el-erian-says-coronavirus-to-paralyze-china-dont-buy-stock-dips.html

See my post about pharm shipments from China, for example.  This morning, my contact said that not only are there few transport flights but that the factories are closed and her associates in CN are not available.

[Drastic]

>'"It is big. It's going to paralyze China. It's going to cascade throughout the global economy," said the Allianz chief economic advisor.'

When I was typing out maybe we'd just have a bump, debbie knew it was wishful thinking.

[rcjordan]

WHaaaa??

"We have not seen a demand destruction event of this scale that moves this quickly"

Oil hits 13-month lows as coronavirus cuts demand - Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-hits-13-month-lows-as-coronavirus-cuts-demand-idUSKBN1ZX033

[rcjordan]

70% chance of recession in next six months, study from MIT and State Street finds
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/05/70percent-chance-of-recession-in-next-six-months-study-from-mit-and-state-street-finds.html

[littleman]

I can't see this not having an impact.

airlines cancel more than 46,000 flights amid coronavirus epidemic

[rcjordan]

>airlines

This is probably worse. From my maritime news feeds

Coronavirus Disrupts Global Container Shipping – gCaptain
https://gcaptain.com/coronavirus-disrupts-global-container-shipping/