YOUR prediction for this years Holiday Sales - Total on&off line

[Mackin USA]

+1%
+2%
+3%
+5%
+6%
+7%
MORE

[rcjordan]

+3% even though it should rightfully be down or at least flat.  We're good at denial.

[nffc]

For the UK this is a good bellwether.

https://www.johnlewispartnership.co.uk/content/cws/jlp/financials/weekly-figures.html

Grim and in our sector very grim.

[littleman]

I think people are going to spend a lot, but it is going to be fueled by debt.  Online shopping will be up 5% over last year; Brick and Mortar flat.  2020 is going to be down.

[rcjordan]

>it is going to be fueled by debt.

Right! But aren't young families already nearly maxxed out?

[littleman]

>maxxed out?

You'd think.  I keep seeing over consumption everywhere, I hope it is just a Bay Area thing.

[Mackin USA]

4.35%

[Drastic]

5%

If mark brings nuum to the US during same period, 6%.

[Mackin USA]

Q3 GDP Beats Big As Consumer Spending Refuses To Drop

[DrCool]

There is one week less between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year which could put a bit of a damper on major growth. That said more and more retailers are shifting their Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales strategies to include the whole week of Thanksgiving and even stretching into the week before that.

I think overall growth will be in the 4% range.

[rcjordan]

Consumer confidence declines in October for second straight month
https://www.consumeraffairs.com/news/consumer-confidence-declines-in-october-for-second-straight-month-103019.html

[littleman]

>it is going to be fueled by debt.

One in 3 Americans have or are planning to take out a personal loan to cover holiday shopping expenses, according to survey results Experian shared with Yahoo Money. That's double from last year's survey, the credit bureau said.

...

One in 6 consumers are still paying off last year's holiday debt on their credit cards after racking up $745 in outstanding balances on average.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/holiday-shopping-loan-205703016.html

[rcjordan]

US retail sales rose less than expected 0.2% in November
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/13/us-retail-sales-november-2019.html

Debbie says that the big push for Same- or Next-day delivery by Amz and, now, Walmart, Target, etc. has allowed people to postpone purchases into December.  Black Friday in physical stores seems to be waning, too.

[rcjordan]

<added>
^{Better article. Worth a read.}

Lackluster US retail sales dim Q4 economic growth outlook - GulfToday
https://www.gulftoday.ae/business/2019/12/14/lackluster-us-retail-sales-dim-q4-economic-growth-outlook

[Mackin USA]

$34.4 BILLION
BIGGEST SHOPPING DAY IN HISTORY!