YOUR prediction for this years Holiday Sales - Total on&off line

Started by Mackin USA, October 24, 2019, 05:58:26 PM

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rcjordan

#15
December 24, 2019, 02:11:33 PM
A recent article said they're predicting a 4% increase in retail sales over last Nov & Dec.  But it wasn't clear if the overall sales total would be up that much as earlier sales might pull down the average.

ergophobe

#16
December 27, 2019, 01:48:56 AM
>>4%

Semi related: I read recently that on average, for every 1% in online sales, 8,000 retail stores close.

rcjordan

#18
January 09, 2020, 03:04:43 PM

ergophobe

#19
January 11, 2020, 04:05:44 PM Last Edit: January 11, 2020, 04:07:23 PM by ergophobe
From Bucky's FT article.

QuoteForrester estimates that half of online returns have little or no "salvage value". "Anything less than original condition and the retailer has to sell it at a discount," said Andy Mantis, chief business officer at analytics company 1010 data.

Some items are wasted completely. Each year in the US, Optoro estimates, about 5bn lbs of returned goods, equivalent to about 5,600 fully loaded 747 jets, goes to landfill.

I just heard a long interview with someone who wrote a book on this, having previously written a book on recycling. The waste is staggering

Of course, where there is pain, there is opportunity

https://blog.christianmoney.com/2019/02/buying-returned-merchandise-by-the-pallet-.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/entered-multi-million-dollar-business-behind-amazon-returns-223211498.html

littleman

#20
January 11, 2020, 08:27:23 PM
I feel very fortunate that the stuff I sell is small (cheap to ship) and most of the time in good shape if returned.  I am trying to bend my head around making a business based on Liquidation.com purchases; thrift shops or flee-market type sales would work I suppose -- something with little overhead and no shipping.

DrCool

#21
January 13, 2020, 04:58:28 PM
>>I am trying to bend my head around making a business based on Liquidation.com purchases

Quite a few years back we bought a pallet of stuff just to see. Like most of the stories you will read some was good, some was bad. I think we were able to sell enough stuff to pay for it. And with more local selling options like FB Marketplace it might make it easier to move some of the stuff without paying shipping costs. I would say running a full time business to support your family would be a tough go but it could be great for a retiree who wants to putter around in his garage for a but and make a couple hundred bucks here and there or a stay at home mom who could spend an hour or two a day researching prices, posting stuff for sale, etc.

rcjordan

#22
January 15, 2020, 12:56:42 PM

ergophobe

#23
January 15, 2020, 05:07:11 PM
QuoteTarget (NYSE:TGT) reports comparable sales rose 1.4% for the two-month holiday period. Continued strength in multiple categories was offset by softer-than-expected performance in key holiday categories including electronics, toys and portions of home, which together account for approximately one-third of the company's holiday season sales.... Comparable sales are expected to be up 1.4% for the full quarter vs. +3.8% consensus estimate.

So sales increased by 1.4%, but it was not enough to satisfy investors who wanted 3.8%, so stocks tumble. Aside from irrational exuberance, why would anyone expect Target sales to increase 3.8%

My read on that is that holiday sales were fine, even very good, but the stock market is overheated, so anything short of fantastic results in stock prices tumbling.

rcjordan

#24
January 15, 2020, 09:48:35 PM
Costco: "Despite technical glitches over Thanksgiving, which experts estimated to have cost Costco as much as $11 million in online sales, the warehouse chain reported a 9% increase in same-store sales during the most recent holiday season."

Costco sales prove Amazon-proof as Target, Macy's struggle - Business Insider
https://www.businessinsider.com/costco-sales-prove-amazon-proof-target-macys-struggle-2020-1

ergophobe

#25
January 16, 2020, 03:09:59 AM
>> Costco

Limited inventory, good quality, great pricing. It's similar to the Trader Joe's model, which sells more per square foot than any grocery store in the country, far outpacing even Amazon/Whole Foods despite the rather different pricing at the latter.

rcjordan

#26
January 17, 2020, 12:52:16 AM
'Lackluster' Holiday Sales Cast a Pall Over U.S. Retail Sector - Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-14/-lackluster-holiday-sales-cast-a-pall-over-u-s-retail-sector

Mackin USA

#27
January 20, 2020, 02:45:42 PM
Holiday sales climb 4.1%, retail industry trade group says, on the higher end of estimates :-)

Online sales rose 14.6%, slightly topping an expected range of 11% to 14%.

https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/nrf-says-2019-holiday-sales-were-41-percent
Mr. Mackin
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