Author Topic: Welcome to the Stock Market Crash of 2011  (Read 68405 times)

dogboy

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Welcome to the Stock Market Crash of 2011
« on: August 09, 2011, 01:43:00 PM »
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Welcome to the crash of 2011. With stunning speed, global markets have sold off to a degree not seen since the worst days of late 2008 and early 2009. In fact, only three times in the past 40 years have stocks sold this hard this quickly, with a 16 percent decline in the S&P 500 in a 10-day period surpassed only by drops in the Octobers of 1987 and 2008.


No one can say precisely when or why this will end. Its triggers we know: a flawed debt deal in the United States, renewed sclerosis in the European Union about peripheral debt issues in Greece and Italy, a downgrade by Standard & Poor’s of U.S. sovereign debt (oh, the irony of S&P downgrading debt leading to a precipitous decline in the S&P index), and then a wave of global selling. No market has been immune; not one.

[....]

These moments create ripples of fear that build like tsunami waves until they crash with destructive force against the shoals of investor confidence, institutional balance sheets, and collective investing psyche. And more than ever, they race around the world unimpeded by national boundaries and uncontainable by central banks. This is a fact of our global system, the downside of the upside of ample liquidity and the ease of getting it from one place to another. And no matter how much we’ve said this over the past three years, when it happens, it is visceral, breathtaking, alarming, and in its own way awe-inspiring.

[...]

But it’s imperative not to get utterly sucked into that alternate reality of high-frequency machines driving prices down everywhere, with a logic strictly of flow and numbers. The internal language and logic of the markets is related to what is going on in the real world, but right now only tangentially. Stocks aren’t selling because of the Washington debt deal or now even because of yields in Italy. They are selling because they are selling. Apple this week is not a company with 12 percent less business than last week; Caterpillar is not about to sell 30 percent fewer earthmovers in China or Brazil. China is not about to purchase 25 percent less iron ore.

[...]

The crash of 2011 is already a bad one by any historical standard, not Great Depression bad, not crash of October 1987 bad, and not the continual collapse of 2008–09 bad, but bad enough. In 1987, the market rebounded very quickly; in March 2009 it did as well. If we are October 1987, it’s time to buy; if it is December 2008, watch out. We will only know the answer to this in retrospect, but this feels more like a crash than a new trend, and like any flash fire, these burn quickly, intensely, and then they stop. You don’t want to be in these markets when this is happening, but you also don’t want to be out of these markets when they reverse.

-http://news.yahoo.com/why-markets-melting-015300351.html

...what are you guys doing?  Time to buy some Apple, Cat, Iron? Sell? Panic and do nothing? Buy that cabin I was telling you about in CO and sit in my bomb shelter?

« Last Edit: August 09, 2011, 01:51:15 PM by dogboy »

Drastic

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Re: Welcome to the Stock Market Crash of 2011
« Reply #1 on: August 09, 2011, 02:40:40 PM »
Me, I'm going to spruce up and rework ads on a financial site that just took off.

grnidone

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Re: Welcome to the Stock Market Crash of 2011
« Reply #2 on: August 09, 2011, 02:51:13 PM »
I'm in the process of paying off ALL my debt and saving cash.  I was wondering when this would happen...and, I think since the dollar is going to tank even more than it already has, I'm going to see work overseas.  I'm sure a good copywriter/ SEO/ Jack-of-all-trades will do quite well for odd jobs.

agerhart

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Re: Welcome to the Stock Market Crash of 2011
« Reply #3 on: August 09, 2011, 03:43:53 PM »
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what are you guys doing? 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but there isn't much you CAN do if you have a decent amount invested and you're down.  If you sell, you're f###ed out of the losses.  Gotta wait it out.

And if you have the funds, go in and start buying up more stock at the low prices

Rumbas

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Re: Welcome to the Stock Market Crash of 2011
« Reply #4 on: August 09, 2011, 03:51:40 PM »
Got out a few months ago. Seriously considering dropping some cash on stocks again as they have never been cheaper.

dogboy

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Re: Welcome to the Stock Market Crash of 2011
« Reply #5 on: August 09, 2011, 04:05:41 PM »
>there isn't much you CAN do
Depends on how you play the game. We're in S&P for the long run, so yeah, we do nothing.

But if you think it's really the beginning of more losses then there are some that might sell, hold the cash, wait for it to bottom then buy, knowing it will rebound.

Hypothetically:)

agerhart

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Re: Welcome to the Stock Market Crash of 2011
« Reply #6 on: August 09, 2011, 04:45:31 PM »
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But if you think it's really the beginning of more losses then there are some that might sell, hold the cash, wait for it to bottom then buy, knowing it will rebound.

Risky game if you ask me....you never know when its the bottom or the top, and going after something like that could mean you lose even more.

Call me a pansy, but I'm going to sit tight and wait for it to come back.

dogboy

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Re: Welcome to the Stock Market Crash of 2011
« Reply #7 on: August 09, 2011, 05:33:16 PM »
>Call me a pansy
well, misery loves company... have a seat, beer's in the fridge in the garage:)

dogboy

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Re: Welcome to the Stock Market Crash of 2011
« Reply #8 on: August 09, 2011, 05:37:12 PM »
flashback:
http://th3core.com/talk/water-coolerextra/who-is-buying-gold/
...I was talking about gold at $1200, now I hear it broke $1700.

I, Brian

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Re: Welcome to the Stock Market Crash of 2011
« Reply #9 on: August 09, 2011, 09:01:22 PM »
Seriously considering dropping some cash on stocks again as they have never been cheaper.

Same here - BUT with the caveat of waiting for what looks like a bottom, or near enough. Nothing worse than investing only to see it tank.

At present I figure the FTSE 100 will spend the next few months moving down towards 4500 then 3500 again.

littleman

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Re: Welcome to the Stock Market Crash of 2011
« Reply #10 on: August 09, 2011, 09:25:13 PM »
> ...what are you guys doing?
REITs and Business Development Corps.  Also, preferred stocks.

dogboy

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Re: Welcome to the Stock Market Crash of 2011
« Reply #11 on: August 09, 2011, 09:49:22 PM »
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The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index jumped 4.7 percent to 1,172.53 at 4 p.m. in New York, its biggest gain since March 2009, after tumbling 6.7 percent yesterday. The 10-year Treasury yield fell as much as 28 basis points to 2.03 percent before trimming its decline. The Dollar Index slid 1.2 percent, its biggest drop since October, while the Swiss franc strengthened as much as 6.5 percent to a record $1.4099.

...the buying window for easy money just closed, in my mind.

littleman

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Re: Welcome to the Stock Market Crash of 2011
« Reply #12 on: August 09, 2011, 10:05:50 PM »
Hard to time the market.

dogboy

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Re: Welcome to the Stock Market Crash of 2011
« Reply #13 on: August 09, 2011, 10:11:42 PM »
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NEW YORK (AP) — Stocks are rising at the closing of trading after the Federal Reserve said it has discussed policy moves it can make to spur the economy. The Fed also said growth has been slower than expected.

The Dow Jones industrial average is closing up 429 points, or 4 percent, to 11,239.77.

Stocks rallied in the last hour of trading. Stocks initially fell after the Fed made its statement, which included a pledge to keep interest rates at their record low until at least the middle of 2013.

The S&P 500 is up 53, or 4.7 percent , to 1,172.53. The Nasdaq is up 124, or 5.3 percent, to 2,482.52
« Last Edit: August 09, 2011, 10:13:38 PM by dogboy »

dogboy

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Re: Welcome to the Stock Market Crash of 2011
« Reply #14 on: August 09, 2011, 10:20:24 PM »