The Core
Why We Are Here => Hardware & Technology => Topic started by: rcjordan on March 17, 2020, 04:31:37 PM
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I'm not good at futurism.
Tech shapes a new stay-at-home economy in the coronavirus' shadow - Axios
https://www.axios.com/tech-shapes-a-new-stay-at-home-economy-e6663c4e-fcfb-4b68-8bc9-37e8c2c1f81d.html
America’s Restaurants Will Need a Miracle - The Atlantic
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/americas-restaurants-will-need-a-miracle/608119/
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Basic Income
Trump wants checks sent to Americans 'immediately'
https://www.rollcall.com/2020/03/17/trump-wants-checks-sent-to-americans-immediately-as-part-of-coronavirus-response/
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Basic Income
Trump wants checks sent to Americans 'immediately'
https://www.rollcall.com/2020/03/17/trump-wants-checks-sent-to-americans-immediately-as-part-of-coronavirus-response/
Reelection bid. His ship is sinking.
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>Reelection
I know, but it'll set a precedent for basic income.
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>I know, but it'll set a precedent for basic income.
It is also absolutely necessary imo. If we've learned anything from the Great Depression its that a social welfare system is critical during a catastrophic downturn.
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I think it's a good idea as a public (socialisthhh) bailout to avoid the Big D.
Ironic how Medicare For All is bad, but Money For All is good.
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CV will accelerate the demise of bricks retail.
N.J. orders all indoor malls to close starting tonight to fight coronavirus pandemic - nj.com
https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/03/nj-orders-all-indoor-malls-to-close-starting-tonight-to-fight-coronavirus-pandemic-murphy-says.html
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CITIZENS FIRST
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Waymo goes dark except for fully driverless rides | Engadget
https://www.engadget.com/2020/03/17/waymo-pauses-services-coronavirus/
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I'm going to be real surprised if American corporations learn anything from this. They are totally focused on their next quarter and so globally invested that they don't give a sh## about any one country. It's going to take government action and regulation to shorten supply chains and produce strategically vital components here.
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Grocery stores were already being drug into online ordering. This is really going to train even their slow-adopting customers that they don't have to go in the store.
Impulse buying (and margins) will particularly suffer.
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We’re not going back to normal
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615370/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing-18-months/
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>back to normal
Yeah, but what's the new normal?
More crowdsourcing...
Folding@home Turns Its Massive Crowdsourced Computer Network Against COVID-19
https://www.hpcwire.com/2020/03/16/foldinghome-turns-its-massive-crowdsourced-computer-network-against-covid-19/
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3-d printing / patents & copyright
Italian hospital needed an $11K part for its ventilators, volunteers 3D printed them at $1 each, original manufacturer threatened to sue
https://boingboing.net/2020/03/18/italian-hospital-needed-an-11.html
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The coronavirus is strengthening the case for free internet access
https://thenextweb.com/politics/2020/03/18/the-coronavirus-is-strengthening-the-case-for-free-internet-access/
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"For better or worse, this pandemic will likely make us pick up the pace on our path to automation, across many sectors and processes. The solutions people implement during this crisis won’t disappear when things go back to normal (and, depending who you talk to, they may never really do so)."
https://singularityhub.com/2020/03/19/coronavirus-may-mean-automation-is-coming-sooner-than-we-thought/
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"they may never really do so"
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Grocery shopping is forever changed by the coronavirus - CNN
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/business/grocery-shopping-online-coronavirus/index.html
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We're going to end up with a public surveillance network similar to China's.
AI Device Can Track Virus Trends by Listening for Coughing
https://www.technologynetworks.com/informatics/news/ai-device-can-track-virus-trends-by-listening-for-coughing-332337
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3D printers are going to be in every hospital and government health services department.
Prusa Research develops 3D-printable face shield in three days
https://boingboing.net/2020/03/20/prusa-research-develops-3d-pri.html
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Amazing. First the respirator valves in Italy and now this. I never really thought of 3D printing for medical devices but seeing this heck yeah every hospital could use one. And the medical corps of the military branches.
Outside of medical, I think this will jump start demand for 3D printing machines all over once the dust settles post CV.
Now somebody ought to design a 3D printed half face mask that uses something common, like a cut down panty shield as a replaceable filter.*
*Dunno if you can breath through a panty shield or how effective it is against CV.
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>panty shield
Somewhere around here, I think I posted an old CDC guide on making a DIY mask. It used heavy t-shirt material that had been boiled to pre-shrink it. Efficiency was 67%, IIRC.
(I wish I had a 3d printer.)
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Xi Jinping will approve.
Infrared AI Cameras Could Spot Coronavirus Carriers - Robot News
https://yellrobot.com/infrared-ai-cameras-coronavirus-athena-security/
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Bernie Sanders May Be Losing, But COVID-19 Is Keeping Medicare for All Alive and Well | Time
https://time.com/5807383/medicare-for-all-coronavirus/
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How coronavirus could permanently change the movie industry
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/how-coronavirus-could-permanently-change-the-movie-industry.html
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Folding@Home Now More Powerful Than World's Top 7 Supercomputers, Combined
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/folding-at-home-worlds-top-supercomputers-coronavirus-covid-19
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Budding couples in UK told to live together or stay apart
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/24/budding-couples-in-uk-told-to-live-together-or-stay-apart
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I am sure there will be a spike in divorces and babies as this continues. Maybe we'll call the spike the Coronaboom?
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I like it, littleman. Coronaboomers.
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New Jersey General Assembly to vote remotely for first time | TheHill
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/489307-new-jersey-general-assembly-to-vote-remotely-for-first-time
US House Members Push To Adapt Voting In Face Of Coronavirus : Coronavirus Live Updates : NPR
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/24/820943132/house-lawmakers-weigh-voting-by-proxy-to-maintain-social-distancing
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Sculley predicts that the fundamental shift in consumer behavior as a result of the coronavirus pandemic is going to present a far more challenging problem to the airline and hotel industries than any temporary economic downturn.
Ex-Apple CEO thinks airlines will scramble to rethink business travel - Business Insider
https://www.businessinsider.com/john-sculley-apple-ex-ceo-business-travel-scramble-2020-3
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FDA allows veterinarians to use telemedicine during coronavirus pandemic
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/24/fda-allows-veterinarians-to-use-telemedicine-during-coronavirus-pandemic.html
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NASCAR's virtual race was the most-watched esports TV show to date | Engadget
https://www.engadget.com/2020-03-25-nascar-esports-racing-series-sets-tv-record.html
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Snowden warns new surveillance measures will outlast the coronavirus
https://thenextweb.com/neural/2020/03/25/snowden-warns-the-surveillance-states-were-creating-now-will-outlast-the-coronavirus/
The FBI's home-workout app also tracks your phones data and location - Business Insider
https://www.businessinsider.com/fbi-home-workout-fittest-app-tracks-location-data-privacy-2020-3
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Shift from public transport to private cars as COVID-19 spreads
https://techxplore.com/news/2020-03-shift-private-cars-covid-.html
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African turns to mobile payments as a tool to curb COVID-19 | TechCrunch
https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/25/african-turns-to-mobile-payments-as-a-tool-to-curb-covid-19/
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When This Is Over
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/v74nz8/coronavirus-has-already-changed-our-lives-forever-restaurants-bars
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Maryland election board to recommend eliminating in-person primary voting
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/489637-maryland-election-board-to-recommend-eliminating-in-person-primary-voting
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'Pandemic drone' in development to detect people with coronavirus
https://techxplore.com/news/2020-03-pandemic-drone-people-coronavirus.html
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Thank you for the news feed. A lot of interesting stuff in here.
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Sure.
>interesting
And a lot to worry about for the world that emerges from this. Debbie keeps saying "just like China does" for a lot of these. We'll never put this genie back in the lamp.
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State's rights and the Republic will have a resurgence.
How US governors are fighting coronavirus – and Donald Trump
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/27/us-governors-coronavirus-trump
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>State's rights and the Republic will have a resurgence.
I think there is a lot of room for this. State's have rested on their laurels for too long. It's time for them to question their reliance on the Fed's and take back some power.
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Liebig’s law writ large
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2020/03/26/liebigs-law-writ-large/
Good long read. Illustrates that one thing that has to change is our global, just in time, supplychain.
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> just in time
Ha! I was thinking about that yesterday. This is one area where computerization has made us vulnerable. Long ago, I mentioned elsewhere here that inventory control software starts a process of winnowing stocks based on sales. That process is, in several ways, detrimental to availability and selection.
<added>
Add 'Master Wholesalers' to the problem of limited inventories.
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Preparing for a post-pandemic world | Al Jazeera
https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/preparing-post-pandemic-world-200325132809404.html
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Coronavirus Will Change the World Permanently. Here’s How. Politico
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/03/19/coronavirus-effect-economy-life-society-analysis-covid-135579
Politico gets a bunch of thinkers to predict changes.
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Let's think about the aftermath of this pandemic in terms of global power politics.
Will the US be viewed as a super power after this or as a paper tiger? Right now we are looking like a paper tiger.
Imagine if the US got into a sustained global war, like World War II. Do we really have the industrial might we once had for a long term fight? Or are we more like Russia, lots of weapons, but a weak economy underneath all the guns?
Consider that right now, we can't even produce enough simple, low tech supplies to equip our medical professionals let alone help our closest allies. Something that we've always been able to do since 1945. Our hospital ships are sailing to NYC and LA, not to Italy or Spain.
In addition, we don't appear to be in charge of our own domestic situation. We're winging it, we have no plan and we're shifting course almost daily and the world knows we are winging it. That does not inspire confidence.
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Paper tiger.
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Cities after coronavirus: how Covid-19 could radically alter urban life
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/26/life-after-coronavirus-pandemic-change-world
Three Industries That Are Being Decimated By The Coronavirus
https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2020/03/28/three-industries-that-are-being-decimated-by-the-coronavirus/
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>State's rights
NY Gov. Cuomo says Trump has no authority to impose quarantine
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/28/ny-gov-cuomo-says-trump-has-no-authority-to-impose-quarantine.html
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Politico gets a bunch of thinkers to predict changes.
Honestly, I was disappointed by this. A lot of wishful thinking it seemed to me.
Do we really have the industrial might we once had for a long term fight?
Tough question. Clearly we do not currently. The question is, do we still have the expertise to become a manufacturing giant? I don't know the answer to that. But consider that FDR saw things heating up and started moving the US to more and more of a war footing, prepping the ground, before the US was officially involved.
Ford famously produced a B-29 Liberator every 63 minutes. But the Willow Run plant did not even exist in 1939 when WWII broke out. They broke ground in 1940, began limited component production in 1941, started producing complete aircraft a year or two later, were plagued with quality and production problems into 1943 and finally were up and running at the famous 63 minutes per plane in 1944. And that was 63 minutes per plane, running 24 hours per day, 7 days a week. Roughly 160 bombers per week.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willow_Run#Liberator_production
Hitler and Stalin both thought it would take the US much, much longer to be an important arms manufacturer. Hitler's war plans were predicated on that bet. They were astounded not at the industrial might of the US in 1939, but at how fast it ramped up in just a few years.
So the question isn't whether we have that capacity today but if, faced with a crisis, could we create that capacity by 2025. And actually, I think we *are* facing a crisis, climate change, that is going to need to see a major reallocation of resources and conversion of large sectors of the economy, if not quite on the scale or urgency of defeating Hitler, but we do not have the will to do it.
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We learned a lot from our haphazard industrial mobilization for World War One. It took us way to long. We put those lessons to work for World War Two, but we also saw that war coming and had some practice providing Lend-Lease materials to Britain before we were actually in the war.
But we had a deep deep bench back then. We had typewriter factories that we could convert to making rifles and bayonets. We had shipyards that still made merchant vessels not just complex naval warships.
But we don't have that deep bench anymore. Our consumer goods are made elsewhere, and increasingly, designed elsewhere. Our factories have fallen into ruin.
I agree, it's a matter of will and planning and sacrifice. If we make goods domestically, they are going to cost more to the consumer. And cheap consumer goods have become part of the bread and circuses that keep the American public complacent and distracted while Too Big to Fail Business loots the Treasury under our noses.
I'm just not convinced that anyone in Washington is paying attention to any of this even though this is what we pay them to do.
And part of what I'm pointing out is that the world gets much more dangerous for the US and the West once the blinders come off our enemies eyes and they see we are a paper tiger. The emperor has no clothes. Once that happens, and it is happening, it makes those enemies more willing to take risks at our expense. Stuff they wouldn't dare to do if they thought we were strong.
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Absolutely. I would say that is all spot on.
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Vasectomies will sky-rocket
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"those enemies more willing to take risks at our expense."
True BUT don't forget the USA will respond.
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>vasectomies
Coronavirus leads to global condom shortage; world’s largest producer now considered a ‘critical’ industry
https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/03/coronavirus-leads-to-global-condom-shortage-worlds-largest-producer-now-considered-a-critical-industry.html
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Bosses speed up automation as virus keeps workers home
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/bosses-speed-up-automation-as-virus-keeps-workers-home
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"those enemies more willing to take risks at our expense."
True BUT don't forget the USA will respond.
Well, the B-52 didn't do us much good in Vietnam or Afghanistan. It's a potent hammer, but not every problem is a nail. Of course, it's still devastating if we're waging a conventional war against an industrial opponent and we control enough of the skies to fly it. But most conflicts around the world don't fit that profile anymore.
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‘A Darwinian approach to federalism’: States confront new reality under Trump - POLITICO
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/31/governors-trump-coronavirus-156875
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Coronavirus: robots trialled to assist during covid-19 outbreak
https://9now.nine.com.au/a-current-affair/coronavirus-robots-trialled-to-assist-during-covid19-outbreak/db5305ab-d46e-4287-86e9-21fe3f382d20
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I think Seth is more insightful than any of the people Politico interviewed, though still a fair bit of wishful thinking. But unlike the other ones, his wishful thinking seems like it *could* happen. Most of the Politico interviews struck me often as predicting not just something that won't happen, but the opposite of what I think will happen (many of them espouse some form of renewed faith in government; I see the opposite).
https://seths.blog/2020/03/genc/
BTW - one thing that has changed for me is trust in government. When Trump came to office and immediately set about scrubbing scientific data from government websites, my faith in government sources fell dramatically. But this crisis has put me in a position where I do not even *consult* government sources anymore and just assume they are being completely massaged and manipulated for political purposes to a degree we have never seen before. I treat them more like the characters in 1984 treat government sources.
No president has done so much damage to the credibility of government since Johnson's and Nixon's lies about Vietnam. As we saw after Vietnam and Watergate, it's largely a one-way street. The ratcheting down is rapid and the ratcheting back up is very slow. Johnson and Nixon killed the *political* credibility of the president forever. Trump has killed the scientific credibility of the government. Incredibly sad.
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>trust in government
“We’re no longer taking the advice of the CDC and the World Health Organization,” Metropolitan Transportation Authority chairman Pat Foye said on MSNBC Tuesday.
MTA boss flouts CDC coronavirus guidance, gets workers masks - New York Daily News
https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-mta-chairman-pat-foye-cdc-20200331-5qseo27gtjdixbsy2vvjcsvkuq-story.html
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>> one thing that has changed for me is trust in government
Me too, although it's not as bad for Canadians.
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Nobody, I know is following the Feds. We're all looking to our Governor for direction, and he's been pretty good. He's a Republican but not a flat-earther.
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I have little faith in the federal government under this administration, I can't believe any thinking person would at this point. The states have been a mixture, I am glad I live in California rather than Florida right now, but I don't think California acted soon enough. Even the local Bay Area health ministers (who were the first in the nation to do stay at home) acted too late. I honestly trust the judgement of the Core much more.
Right now governments are pretty universally discouraging stockpiling food, but we think we're going to run into supply chain issues in the next couple of months. Up until recently most Western governments said masks are pointless, but we've sighted lots of evidence that wearing them slows/decreases the spread. I think I'll keep evaluating evidence for myself and listening to smart people instead of seeking leadership.
(I just got another 80 lbs of dry goods today)
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>> discouraging stockpiling food
Up to a point, stockpiling food and practical supplies makes good sense for the individual household. It can get difficult for the broader society if people do it stupidly, though; shopping carts full of TP and no food! The mission needs a more balanced approach.
In general, don't buy a huge supply of something all at once. Buy some extra, yes, but accumulate gradually so there's still something on the shelf for the next person. Also, aim to keep the supplies in your pantry in the proportions you'd actually use. 100 pounds of dried peas would have more value if you also acquire the other ingredients you'd need to make good soup!
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I totally agree. We bought another oatmeal, various packages of beans and lentils, 20lbs of flour, and four different types of bulk rice. We went to an Asian grocery chain and they literally had pallets of rice in the front of the store -- so we weren't hogging. We also bought another bag of potatoes and some squash. This is obviously more than we would buy normally, but we are also going to the store a lot less. We wore gloves and face masks, and I have to say that the chain has it down for social distancing.
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>>Nobody, I know is following the Feds.
What really struck me is that when I do web searches, I used to think that .gov sites would be reliable sources for science. I started noticing that in March, if I saw a .gov site, I didn't click the link. That's new for me and very sad if you consider all the amazing science that government scientists have done and are doing (I have friends who are talented and dedicated govt scientists).
>>stockpiling
I think Buckworks approach to stockpiling food is the best I know. I don't want to put words in your mouth (or fingers) Elizabeth, but what I have taken away from you and tried to implement
1. Keep two months of food on hand as well as medicine, hand tools, etc.
2. Stock up before there's an emergency
I like the idea that it isn't a "screw the world and hunker down" approach, but a "be ready for a rainy day" approach, which suits my temperament much better.
That said, I think Littleman is right. Farmers in the US are saying that closing the borders will affect the harvest of early crops. I don't think we will run out calories - there are huge stores of corn and soybeans. But even there, getting those from silos into little bags that get sold in the grocery store could get interrupted.
It also shocks me how many people don't even have a two-day emergency supply of water!
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Coronavirus will be ‘imprinted on the personality of our nation for a very long time,’ Fauci warns
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/01/anthony-fauci-coronavirus-pandemic-159158
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China Puts County On Lockdown After New Corona Cluster Emerges
Having lied for the past two months about the severity and the extent of coronavirus pandemic which its virologists started in Wuhan, eager to convey the message that the crisis "under control" just so people return to work, full of hope and enthusiasm, rejoicing at the surge in China's just as fabricated PMI numbers, and willing to work their asses off (with Beijing generously willing to risk everyone's lives as the alternative is a complete collapse in China's economy) earlier today the US finally cracked down on the relentless barrage of Chinese lies, when US intelligence accused China of deliberately lying about its coronavirus figures.
Then, in a miraculous coincidence, just moments later Reuters reported that a county in central China's Henan province announced on Wednesday it had "virtually banned all outbound movement of people, following several cases of coronavirus infection in the area."
According to a post on its social media account, Jia county - which has a population of about 600,000 - said that no one can travel out of Jia county without proper authorization. Additionally, residents are not allowed to leave their homes for work unless they have clearance to do so.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-we-go-again-china-puts-entire-county-lockdown-after-new-corona-cluster-emerges
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I think we will reassess what fit and healthy really is.
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>healthy
Well, one thing for sure, we won't have as many restaurants feeding us unhealthy food.
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How Epidemics of the Past Changed the Way Americans Lived | History | Smithsonian Magazine
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/how-epidemics-past-forced-americans-promote-health-ended-up-improving-life-this-country-180974555/
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Poll: Almost one in four small businesses are two months or less away from closing permanently | TheHill
https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/business-a-lobbying/490957-poll-one-in-four-small-businesses-are-two-months-or
Debbie says that's too low, more like 1/3rd. And probably 1/2+ of small hospitality-related businesses.
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Telemedicine Arrives in the U.K.: ‘10 Years of Change in One Week’ - The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/world/europe/telemedicine-uk-coronavirus.html
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I wonder if local plumbers are starting to stock bidet add on kits?
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This might be upstream, but the article is better. pix
Italy's doctors look for help from sleek new robots
https://techxplore.com/news/2020-04-italy-doctors-sleek-robots.html
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I wonder how many people who, for example, can't find milk or eggs or potatoes will find something new and never go back.
There were all those articles about the collapse of the dairy industry a while back. Dairy has a huge problem - the supply is not elastic in the short term. So with people going to the store less often and prioritizing non-perishables, I wonder if the troubles in the dairy industry will turn into a catastrophe.
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Will coronavirus reverse globalisation? - BBC News
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52104978
Answer: For a while, then we'll slip back due to seeking the cheapest labor. Some 'strategic' items may be mandated to be produced within a country. (See Portugal's comment upstream.) In high-labor-cost countries, robots will flourish, maybe even dominate the returning jobs.
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I wonder if local plumbers are starting to stock bidet add on kits?
In a family call the other day, my nephew was chiding his sister because she teased him when he put in the bidet. "I bet that bidet doesn't look so stupid to you now," he said.
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Coronavirus: Bankruptcies won't save retail this time
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/04/coronavirus-retail-is-used-to-existential-crises-but-bankruptcies-wont-save-it-now.html
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>we don't appear to be in charge of our own domestic situation
Why the West’s coronavirus response shows it isn’t better than the rest of us | South China Morning Post
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3078618/why-wests-coronavirus-response-shows-it-isnt-better-rest-us
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House moves to electronic filing of bills and floor documents to reduce staffing during pandemic - Roll Call
https://www.rollcall.com/2020/04/06/house-moves-to-electronic-filing-of-bills-and-floor-documents-to-reduce-staffing-during-pandemic/
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COVID-19 has shown us that Americans are sicker than we thought
https://www.kevinmd.com/blog/2020/04/covid-19-has-shown-us-that-americans-are-sicker-than-we-thought.html
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Grocery stores nationwide deploying robots to reduce pressure on workers during COVID-19 pandemic
https://ktla.com/news/grocery-stores-nationwide-deploying-robots-to-reduce-pressure-on-workers-during-covid-19-pandemic/
Pffftt! 'Reduce pressure on workers' my a##.
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s/reduce pressure/replace/gi
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In your heart of hearts, you know its coming...
The Technology That Could Free America From Quarantine
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/contact-tracing-could-free-america-from-its-quarantine-nightmare/609577/
Learn to remove the battery in your phone.
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Coronavirus: California Supreme Court hears cases remotely - Los Angeles Times
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-07/for-the-first-time-ever-california-supreme-court-hears-arguments-remotely-due-to-coronavirus
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I heard an interview with Stephen King and he had some interesting comments.
1. He is finally making progress on a book that he was a bit stuck on, "because there's nothing else to do." This is something I've been thinking about. 2020-2022 is going to be a terrible time for writers and a great time for readers. Expect a glut of books that have been in the works for years that finally come to fruition.
2. He had to change the setting for the book. It was set in 2020, but it includes people going on a cruise and attending a conference. He had to go back and reset it in 2019. That also strikes me. We were watching a movie the other day and the characters go to a public lecture and my first thought was, "Oh yeah, that's back when large groups of people gathered in one room." It already feels strange to see it in movies.
3. The ads on TV were all made before the pandemic and appear hopelessly out of date. Kids wrestling with grampa, people at big parties. When will that seem normal.
4. We're all turning into Howard Hughes. He was talking about how in the movie The Aviator, Howard Hughes' behavior seemed so odd when he saw it - in particular a scene where he is trying to leave the bathroom, but every time he touches something he has to go back and wash his hands again - and now it seems almost normal.
5. The one I liked the best. He said growing up (he is 71), when they complained, his mother would always say, "Yeah, well during the Depression...." He said that in 20 years when kids are complaining about being bored, their parents will be saying, "Look, when I was your age, we were locked in the house for months at a time." Of course, he's assuming that it's better, not worse, 20 years from now.
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Have I mentioned robots? hhh. We are going to be awash in robots.
Meet humanity's new coronavirus ally: robots - Los Angeles Times
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-04-11/overcoming-coronavirus-with-help-of-robots
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Robots Welcome to Take Over, as Pandemic Accelerates Automation - The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/business/coronavirus-workplace-automation.html
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Bill Gates Says the Coronavirus Will Change Life Forever. Here's How to Adapt | Inc.com
https://www.inc.com/justin-bariso/bill-gates-says-coronavirus-will-change-life-forever-heres-how-to-adapt.html
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Robots ride to rescue as delivery risks rise | AFP.com
https://www.afp.com/en/news/3954/robots-ride-rescue-delivery-risks-rise-doc-1qm1ve4
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Food for thought for the future:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/avivahwittenbergcox/2020/04/13/what-do-countries-with-the-best-coronavirus-reponses-have-in-common-women-leaders/#7e7bb64f3dec
What Do Countries With The Best Coronavirus Responses Have In Common? Women Leaders
not the only thing in common, but seems important.
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I've been reading a bit fo Central Valley Ag news this morning.
Here's a syllogism for you
Major premise: The Department of Homeland Security has declared farmworkers essential and said they must continue to work
Minor premise: An estimated half of all farmworkers are undocumented immigrants
Conclusion? Does Covid change immigration policy? California farmers have been begging for change for a long time, but it doesn't play as well among non-farmers
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Instacart jumps into prescription delivery with Costco | TechCrunch
https://techcrunch.com/2020/04/16/instacart-jumps-into-prescription-delivery-with-costco/
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Deploying better, more conversational chatbots for customer service
https://techxplore.com/news/2020-04-deploying-conversational-chatbots-customer.html
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Wuhan’s 11 Million People Are Free to Dine Out. But They Aren’t - Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-15/wuhan-s-life-after-lockdown-isn-t-business-as-usual
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Post coronavirus, the U.S. economy may be totally different - Los Angeles Times
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-04-17/post-pandemic-world-u-s-economy-totally-different
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Cuomo signs order allowing New Yorkers to obtain marriage licenses and perform ceremonies remotely | TheHill
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/493492-cuomo-signs-executive-order-allowing-new-yorkers-to-obtain-marriage
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Driverless pizza delivery
https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/comments/g3plc5/driverless_pizza_delivery/
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How COVID-19 has changed consumers’ entire view of the world—and their own country
https://www.agilitypr.com/pr-news/public-relations/how-covid-19-has-changed-consumers-entire-view-of-the-world-and-their-own-country/
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This could go in any number of threads, but this is as good as anywhere.
Mark Cuban: Capitalism must get kinder, Trump has done okay, and “universities are f###ed"
Investor, Dallas Mavericks owner, and Shark Tank co-host Mark Cuban talks with Recode's Kara Swisher about what capitalism and entrepreneurship looks like in a post-coronavirus world; whether he's planning to run for political office, and what his platform would be if he did; and what it will take for professional sports to come back. Cuban, who was recently announced as a member of President Trump's panel to re-open the economy, says the government hasn't done enough yet for small businesses and explains why "America 2.0" will require putting more money in the hands of workers — in good times and bad — and much more investment in technology. Plus: What companies would he create now if he were a young entrepreneur?
https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/vox/recode-decode/e/68963574
I have only ever listened to a few episodes of Recode/Decode (notably the Snowden interview, which was terrible actually). And I don't follow sports and I've never seen Shark Tank, so I have practically no idea who Mark Cuban is, other than having heard the name. Perhaps those of you more familiar with either one won't find this as interesting, but I thought this was a really good interview. It was done just before he was named to Trump's committee to examine reopening the economy.
I was super impressed actually. Again, I know little about him, but based on this interview, if he threw his hat in the ring for the 2020 presidency, I would vote for him tomorrow. One thing he talked about is how both current candidates are complete tech illiterates and how, he thinks, post corona, we are going to need tech-literate politicians or China will eat the US alive.
Other topics
- what businesses he would start if he were a young kid starting from scratch (Alexa services, disinfection services)
- what job he would look for if he were laid off ("anything in sales") and build his Alexa/disinfection business as a side hustle until it got going
- why universities are f###ed (#1 because he doesn't think they'll reopen in the fall and #2 because if all they can offer is distance learning, they can't justify their absurd costs in the US)
- how long he thinks it will be until the economy is humming again
-- 3 years if everything goes really, really well
-- 5 years as his over/under
-- 10 years if this really goes to sh##
- what this means to workers and unions and wages
Anyway, I'm like the interviewer - I wouldn't know off the top of my head what sport the Dallas Mavericks play if I weren't told and I couldn't have told you anything about Cuban. I've heard the name a lot and always filed him under the "celebrities to ignore" column. I was really impressed by this interview though. Well worth a listen.
Update...
This makes me like him less (hopefully he has learned something in the 14 years since this quote), but it also sounds like a certain president I know, so it's not a disqualifier:
In a June 30, 2006 interview, Mavericks player Dirk Nowitzki said about Cuban:[103]
He's got to learn how to control himself as well as the players do. We can't lose our temper all the time on the court or off the court, and I think he's got to learn that, too. He's got to improve in that area and not yell at the officials the whole game.
But this makes me think he would be an interesting guy to have in the White House.
In a nationally publicized incident in 2002, he criticized the league's manager of officials, Ed T. Rush, saying that he "wouldn't be able to manage a Dairy Queen." Dairy Queen management took offense to Cuban's comments and invited him to manage a Dairy Queen restaurant for a day. Cuban accepted the company's invitation and worked for a day at a Dairy Queen in Coppell, Texas, where fans lined up in the street to get a Blizzard from the owner of the Mavericks.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Cuban
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-- 3 years if everything goes really, really well
-- 5 years as his over/under
-- 10 years if this really goes to sh##
That sounds about right to me, though I think the bottom end could be longer depending on how mismanaged the crisis is.
My daughter was just accepted into a university, but I am thinking it makes little sense to pay full tuition for remote learning. I floated the idea of taking another semester at the local JC and then transfer.
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Back when blogging was big in the oughts I read a lot of his long posts and he had a lot of interesting ideas.
I still follow him on Twitter and his posts about CV from very early on when gov't was not doing anything, were very good, insightful and compassionate.
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>> - why universities are f###ed
SAT and SAT prep courses too. Apparently a lot of schools that used to require the SAT are waiving the requirement for the time being. But if they find they get by fine without it, will the support it in the future? That whole industry is a ridiculous racket and I think universities are better off without it. It's just a handy shortcut, but probably leads to a worse student body.
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>Mark Cuban
Overall I am a fan of most of Cuban's stuff. I really like the way he runs the Dallas Mavericks and is probably one of the better NBA owners. He really does seem to take care of his players and invest into his community. He knows how to make money with his businesses but also knows how to take care of others while doing it.
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...and ROBOTS, you forgot the robots!!
“When we get on the other side of the pandemic, it’s going to be a buyers’ market again for labor,” said Elise Gould at the Economic Policy Institute. “People will just be scrambling to get a job, any job.”
‘Scary Time’ for American Middle Class as Office Jobs Disappear - Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-22/-scary-time-for-american-middle-class-as-office-jobs-disappear
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He knows how to make money with his businesses but also knows how to take care of others while doing it.
In one section he was ranting about how companies that have employees who collect government assistance are effectively taxpayer-subsidized companies engaging in a sort of socialism for the rich.
But he went the next step - he had all his companies do an audit to find out whether he had any employees on public assistance. To his chagrin, he found out they did have a small handful of such employees, usually due to some extenuating circumstance such as medical bills. They then set about developing programs to get those employees off public assistance and whole again.
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Medical supplies today, everything else coming soon
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-drones-will-deliver-medical-supplies-in-trial-transport-secretary-says-11978376
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>drones
In Florida, a High-Tech Way to Get Prescriptions
https://www.newser.com/story/290159/you-can-now-get-your-prescriptions-via-drone-in-one-place.html
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Instacart is going to catch on as a service and stay popular. That's my prediction after trying it for Aldi shopping yesterday. 2 hrs later my groceries were delivered. All the ease of Amazon but with the ability to get frozen foods and quick delivery.
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>Instacart
What'd it cost you, including tip?
IIRC, they recently put out a hiring call for 200k+ shoppers.
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https://www.amazon.com/Frozen-Foods/b?node=6459122011
https://www.amazon.com/Digiorno-Traditional-Crust-Cheese-Pizza/dp/B00E1SJ6XO
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After coronavirus, the U.S. will ‘never return to free-market capitalism as we knew it,’ says Guggenheim’s Minerd (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/after-coronavirus-the-us-will-never-return-to-free-market-capitalism-as-we-knew-it-says-guggenheims-minerd-2020-04-27)
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>Instacart
What'd it cost you, including tip?
IIRC, they recently put out a hiring call for 200k+ shoppers.
3.99 Delivery Fee
5.10 Tip
2.55 Service Fee
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For more frozen foods I placed an order via
https://www.schwans.com/
In my area Schwan's has their own fleet of delivery trucks to deliver to your door sort of like the milkman did in the old days. But they will also ship via UPS.
I thought I'd try them since they have a very good reputation around here. A lot of working folks with long commutes and little time to shop use them. Ordering was easy.
I'm pretty sure their delivery business is way up since the lockdown. I suspect Schwan's parent company is geared mainly towards the B2B trade but they decided to hit the B2C market outside the normal store channels via home delivery which must be successful because they were already operating around here 15 years ago when I moved in and are still going strong.
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Faster Drug Development Processes Likely to Outlive COVID-19 | BioSpace
https://www.biospace.com/article/faster-drug-development-processes-likely-to-outlive-covid-19-/
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>Paper tiger
Anger directed by misinformation (https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/coronavirus-china-bat-patent-conspiracy-theory-942416/) has us eating our own when the house is on fire. Meanwhile our Dear Leader is wasting time yelling at the person who's house caught on fire first to deflect that we had months to clear the brush around our own property. The United State's response to Corvid-19 is an international disgrace. My gut is telling me that we're going to end up with a wrecked economy and a fatality number higher than anyone would believe today.
edit:spelling
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I am told this might be worth looking out for:
CNN this evening at 22.00 ET - they are doing a chronological expose on what dementia trump has stated throughout this crisis using video clips of what he said and on what date.
for a laugh. Should I put it in one of the humour threads? :)
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Sure.
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No doubt about it, humans are a PITA to deal with as employees, so we're going to eliminate them. We want them to keep buying, though.
Gap rushes in more robots to warehouses to solve virus disruption
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-gap-automation-foc/gap-rushes-in-more-robots-to-warehouses-to-solve-virus-disruption-idUSKBN22X14Y
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??? TAX FARM ???
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Slowly-boiled frog man. Oooh it's getting hot in here.
"But we live in a democracy, we can go on TV and say stuff, our opinions are aired nationally."
Sounds great, did you manage to stop the last fuel-tax hike ?
"But we're better off now under a blah-blah government"
Sounds great, how's your finances compared to your Dad's ? Yes i know your TV is bigger but how's it on balance ?
I'm being facetious but just imagine this, just for a second imagine that powerful families communicated together over time, just the natural progression of human tribalism - the family is a hierarchy, school is a hierarchy, jobs are a hierarchy, village leader, town leader etc
Over time controlling groups have to form, to deny that would be to deny over 100 years of anthropology. Of course the groups with the most control meet and have discussions, they would be fucktards not to!
So ultimately it's like supermarkets, all the little ones die and we're just left with Tesco or whatever. We are implicitly en route to a Tesco of government, around the whole world. Then it will be a Tesco religion, a Tesco currency, E.T. f###ing Cee. (i'm on my soap box now)
There is a group and there is a plan, how could it be any other way after 6,000 years of war.
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On the other hand, in 1894 the average life expectancy was 46 for men and 48 for women and our factories were full of child labor.
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You can't compare the way it was 125 years ago in the US to today.
126 years ago:
1. there were hardly any paved roads. The Lincoln Highway, the first (mostly) paved highway from coast to coast didn't happen until 1913. Pavement, for your car, comes at a tremendous price compared to dirt roads.
2. There used to be unregulated commercial fishing on Lake Michigan. By 1950, the Lake had been fished out. Today it's available again for sport fishing but only because the surrounding states restock the fish yearly from hatcheries. That $30 fishing license helps pay for that. And the limits on catches helps keep sport fishing alive for everyone.
3. The first sewers were going in here. All they did was keep the raw sewage from flowing in the streets by dumping it and rainwater into the streams. The streams became dead open sewers. We're still undoing those combined sewers from a century ago to separate sewer water from rain water. The cost is huge partly because we have to tear up those paved streets that our cars love so much to get to the 100 year old sewers. Not mentioning the treatment plant cost.
4. In towns, all that sewage soon contaminated the wells so they put in a municipal water system. That costs money and pipes don't last forever so they have to be replaced. Wait for it: which means tearing up those precious paved streets first.
5. We didn't need to regulate vehicle speeds because it was still mostly a 3 mph world of horses pulling wagons on those old dirt roads. If you wanted to move faster you took a streetcar or a train if there was one.
6. 50 years ago one of our open sewer waterways caught fire. The damn thing burned for for a week or more. So we regulated industrial sewage in a big way. It's no prize, but it's way cleaner now than it was.
7. 125 years ago there was a radium factory in town so your watch dial would glow in the dark. They still don't know what to do with that land because the background radiation is high from the contaminated soil.
I could go on forever. My point is people and industries don't regulate themselves. We tried it and it does not work. That and "progress" all come at a price. There is no free lunch. You want roads, railroads, clean water, clean air, fish, birds, cars, police, firefighters, ambulances, hospitals, schools, electricity, 4G, wired broadband all at the same time, it costs money and it can only be done with regulations and enforcement.
Do I like all the rules, regulations and fees? No. I'm involved in my town government in a small way. Everything we do requires permission from county, state, federal authorities. It requires legions of lawyers, engineers, "consultants" just to do the paperwork required for permission. And when you've finally built something, you have to pay to maintain it and generate regualr reports to all those government agencies. It all costs taxpayers a lot of money, but it's better than a free for all like we had 125 years ago. We're still undoing the mistakes made in the last 125 years.
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Brad, thank you for that post. It's brilliant!
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What Buckworks said.
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Hello and welcome: Robot waiters to the rescue amid virus
https://techxplore.com/news/2020-05-robot-waiters-virus.html
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Seems the main change regarding robots and covid-19 is the acceptance of their use instead of humans. All of a sudden robot made pizza seems a lot less offensive to me.
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Food workers took the big hit on jobs during the pandemic, but they ain't seen the end of job losses yet. Within 5 years, you'll be thanking Rosie the Robot for your burger & fries.
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>robot
What we need is a robot home barber to cut hair. Not that I want to put barbers out of business, nor am I keen on having some bucket of bolts put a straight razor to the back of my neck either.
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I just convinced my wife that no matter how she cut it, I would say, "Thank you." The only disagreement we have had about my haircut is when she asks "There, how's that," and I say, "Great! Thank you," and she says, "But you didn't even look in the mirror." Now I know to look before I say it's great.
My dad, though, has done me one better. He has cut his own hair for 60 years. He struggles now because he's lost shoulder flexibility.
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Mayors Tout the '15-Minute City' as Covid Recovery - Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-15/mayors-tout-the-15-minute-city-as-covid-recovery?
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GitHub buried a data archive at the North Pole in case post-apocalyptic society needs help
Dear people of the future: we’re sorry for whatever horrible thing we did that caused the apocalypse (was it nukes? climate change? killer robots? idiots who wouldn’t wear masks during a pandemic?). But the good news is, if you’re reading this you must have found GitHub’s buried data archive containing everything you need to reboot society
https://thenextweb.com/neural/2020/07/20/github-buried-a-data-archive-at-the-north-pole-in-case-post-apocalyptic-society-needs-help/
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Yelps says more than half of restaurants temporarily closed are now permanently shuttered
https://mashable.com/article/yelp-restaurants-temporary-permanent-closures/
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A third of US museums may not survive the COVID-19 pandemic
https://matadornetwork.com/read/survey-museums-may-not-survive/
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Restaurant chains are unveiling new designs inspired by the pandemic
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/05/restaurant-chains-are-unveiling-new-designs-inspired-by-the-pandemic.html
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The only restaurant food my family has had since the pandemic is of the fast food variety -- two drive through McDonald's for fries and chicken nuggets, and one Costco pizza. We didn't get much restaurant food before, but those would not have been our first choices. I hope the mom and pop's come back.
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I think food places that are at least holding their own have:
1. Drive up windows.
2. Large base of take out customers.
3. Delivery. (Particularly pre-paid.)
Right here in my 'hood I see the Domino's delivery (because of the light up sign on the car roof) car all the time. I also see lots of pizza delivery from the ma and pa pizzerias.
McDonald's seems to have drive up windows down to a science.
The Dunkin Donuts always has a line of cars at the driveup.
The local old fashioned eat in the car, drive-in root beer stand has been doing a landmark business, although it's seasonal.
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Took Lucy Back to Brighton this weekend. You would not no that Covid was a thing at all on the Beach sat Night.
We had a meal on the beach in a restaurant and then kept away from the crowds. But then the young will be growing our heard community for us all perhaps. I dont see many signs of poorly people now.
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Robots in Texas.
Robots will soon be fulfilling your H-E-B online grocery orders
https://www.chron.com/business/article/Robots-are-being-deployed-by-H-E-B-to-fulfill-15583624.php
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The grocery store "pickers" with giant carts are clogging isles at my (busy) HEB, so this is welcome. Should create a giant "crane game" picker robot on overhead tracks.
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Sorry, Kids. Snow Days Are Probably Over. - The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/25/us/snow-days-online-school.html
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>Snow Days Are Probably Over.
Clicked to see whether the article was about COVID or climate change.
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Regal-owner Cineworld to close all U.S., UK and Irish screens
https://www.metro.us/regal-owner-cineworld-to-close/
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Research across 65 countries finds that governments have exploited the pandemic to expand their domestic surveillance capabilities and curtail internet freedom
Internet Freedom Has Taken a Hit During the Covid-19 Pandemic | WIRED
https://www.wired.com/story/internet-freedom-covid-19-2020/
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NPR sees 25% drop across the board b/c people are no longer listening in their cars.
People who listened to NPR shows on the radio at home before the pandemic by and large still do. But many of those who listened on their commute have not rejoined from home. And that threatens to alter the terrain for NPR for years to come, said Lori Kaplan, the network's senior director of audience insights.
"We anticipated these changes," Kaplan said. "This kind of change was going to take place over the next decade. But the pandemic has shown us what our future is now."
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/15/891404076/npr-radio-ratings-collapse-as-pandemic-kills-listeners-commutes?utm_source=morning_brew
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You're nudged me into subscribing to the two local NPR stations. I've been meaning to anyway.
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As I get more aggressive about my ad blocking, I am rethinking my contract with the websites I read and donating to sites and podcasts (very small amounts I must admit) that would miss if they were gone. I never thought much about Wikipedia funding until maybe a couple of years ago, but that is a site I would really miss. The truth is that I would miss Google - search, translate, the handy calculator, maps - but I don't donate to them... willingly ;-)
Part of the changed future after Covid is seeing who can survive when large swaths of ad spend has dried up (huge drops in travel and tourism spend, that's for sure). Ad-supported media in general is taking a huge hit and I can't say I'm sorry. It has been one of the more corrosive forces of the last 25 years, especially in the last 15 years due to the Buzzfeedification of all media. Without ad-supported media, much of the fake news that gets shared on social media wouldn't be there to share.
Tristan Harris had a nice interview with Timothy Wu, author of The Attention Merchants, about the rise of ad-supported newspapers in the 1830s and how that played out over time, leading to a rash of fake news, a handful of wars and fascism, but in the end, to the journalistic standards that guided the industry for a few decades (don't report rumor, verify with two independent sources, etc).
https://www.humanetech.com/podcast/16-when-attention-went-on-sale
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Bean counters, miners, autoworkers top job displacement list
https://www.fastcompany.com/90566481/bean-counters-miners-and-auto-workers-top-new-list-of-jobs-most-likely-to-be-displaced
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I don't like it.
Burger King's 2021 stores have food lockers, conveyor belts: Pictures - Business Insider
https://www.businessinsider.com/burger-king-new-stores-2021-food-lockers-conveyor-belts-burgers-2020-10
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One of the trends in our lives has been less and less casual contact with other human beings. There's the whole Bowling Alone (http://bowlingalone.com/) phenomenon, but in addition there are ATMs and self-serve gas and ticket kiosks and so on. Covid is accelerating that and I fear there is an element of sacrificing humanity in the quest for efficiency.
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Now a Thing: Digital-Only Restaurants
https://www.newser.com/story/298780/now-a-thing-digital-only-restaurants.html
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Now a Thing: Digital-Only Restaurants
https://www.newser.com/story/298780/now-a-thing-digital-only-restaurants.html
Automats are making a comeback.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/foodanddrink/foodnews/nyc-automat-announces-massive-deal-to-franchise-500-locations-in-north-america/ar-BB1aScY8
https://www.livemint.com/news/automats-make-a-comeback-in-covid-19-pandemic-11604898582551.html
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>Digital only restaurants
Travis Kalanick's (Uber founder) new venture is CloudKitchens.com. They rent commercial kitchen space to delivery-only restaurants. Huge potential IMO. Currently building in 40 U.S. cities.
https://www.businessinsider.com/cloud-kitchens-travis-kalanick-san-francisco-location-address-pictures-2019-11
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>rent commercial kitchen space
This will be huge. Locally here there is a guy who has been working with restaurants to partner them up with other food producers that can utilize their facilities during times the restaurant is closed.
My wife and I have been looking into some commercial kitchen space recently. There are some shared kitchens but they are all pretty limited in what they can do. But if we could get some space a day or two in an existing restaurant kitchen that would be ideal. She has been making and selling out of our home but we have had some interest from restaurants that want to sell her biscuits but in order to do that we would need commercial space.
In the local food groups I am in there are at least a couple dozen people doing the same type of things. Stay at home moms selling cheesecakes, guys selling some bbq on the weekends, people selling ethnic foods that are hard to find in restaurants here (tamales, lumpia, empanadas, etc.). Easy, affordable access to commercial kitchen space will definitely help grow a LOT of small businesses. Most of these people don't want a normal restaurant but just want to be able to sell their products for people to take home and eat.
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Bill Gates says 50% of all business travel will go away post-pandemic - Business Insider
https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-business-travel-office-work-predictions-post-pandemic-2020-11
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Well, where's the ambiance?
The Robotic Future of Restaurants: 75% Smaller, No Humans In The Kitchen, Fits In A Shipping Container
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2020/12/11/the-robotic-future-of-restaurants-75-smaller-no-humans-in-the-kitchen-fits-in-a-shipping-container/
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> ambulance
I was immediately thought of that restaurant that was overrun by rats that has been in the news. With no humans in the kitchen it could be a long time before rats are detected.
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>rats
I was just reading about that. They didn't close the place until the rats chewed through the cash register cables.
>rats
Seal the doors and ozone them. (Ozone is my current answer to everything, hhh. When all you have is a hammer...)
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Seal the doors and ozone them.
My first thought as well - with no humans in there, you can kill everything. Even safer, just flood the place with nitrogen and kill all aerobic life periodically. Removing humans opens a lot of possibilities for improved hygiene.
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> rats
Are we sure those weren't politicians masquerading as rats? Hard to tell.
>ozone them
Politicians.
Okay it was a cheap shot but I'm fine with it.
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>with no humans in there, you can kill everything
IIRC, when I was helping my daughter with the nursing home defense I ran across some health department or NIH regulations allowing ozoning of food and food prep areas.
Also, I read somewhere that while ozone doesn't kill roaches they do tend to flee the area and go somewhere else.
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>>flee the area
For bedbugs in hotels, it is now standard to kill them with heat. Since they tend to flee, though, you need to first heat up all adjacent rooms above, next to, below and diagonally, so they flee into the target room. Then you crank the heat in the target room until they're dead. I guess exterior walls are okay b/c once they're out of the building the die of other things? Not totally sure.
Anyway, point being that you want to make sure you plan for where they flee to
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"as the Covid crisis accelerates workplace technology change"
More than half of UK's furloughed jobs at risk of automation - The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/dec/15/more-than-half-of-uk-furloughed-jobs-at-risk-of-automation-report
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>commercial kitchen space
Restaurants Turn To 'Ghost Kitchens' For Survival
https://kjzz.org/content/1644150/ghost-kitchens-restaurants-launch-take-out-only-branches-they-adapt-pandemic
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>Ghost Kitchens
I had seen a few articles about ghost kitchens even before COVID. Makes total sense. Why pay for all the overhead of a dining room, large menu, diverse options, etc. when you can just get a small kitchen and crank out a handful of dishes and do them reasonably well? They can also focus on food that travels well and has little degradation if delivery takes 15-20 minutes. They can also make sure things make sense economically and focus on higher margin foods when the delivery services take their 20-30%
There have been a number of restaurants around here that have done some pretty amazing pivots as well. One used to do kind of upscale burgers and modern takes on classic dishes. Over the last couple weeks they have shifted to making burritos you can just grab and go. They only need a 6-10 ingredients on hand and one or two people can crank them out at a good pace. There are a lot of restaurants here that do a lot of whining and complaining but the ones who have been able to adapt, change their menus, swallow their pride a bit and focus on what kind of food needs to be cooked vs. what they want to cook, etc. seem to be doing reasonably well.
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One of the Pandemic’s Big Winners: Hunting
License sales, in long decline, jumped this year as newcomers ventured into the wild.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/one-of-the-pandemics-big-winners-hunting-11607871411
I expect this uptick will be persistent (lots of the new hunters will stick with it), but will not change the overall trend (the same underlying demographic reasons for decline continue to exist).
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I see a little more fishing & boating, but not more hunting. Though I have heard a few shotguns in the surrounding fields and shores this year, it is infrequent. A decade ago, I'd hear an opening salvo every Saturday morning, for sure. And I don't see dog boxes in pickup trucks much. They used to be in every third one.
So, Debbie says that while rural areas surrounding large urban areas are probably seeing an uptick in hunters & fishermen, they are doing so because the cityfolk are using it for an escape.
I don't think all this outdoorsy-ness is going to stick. Maybe some, but not much. Right now, it is just something to do. Once the bars and restaurants open up, they'll drop the guns & rods.
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> hunting
The fields I used to hunt when I was a teen are all housing subdivisions now and city limits have expanded enormously. Around here there is also less traditional game with the exception of deer and turkeys. Upland birds are scarce due to changes in farming, rabbits are all hiding out in the subdivisions because the coyotes have returned to the woods and fields. I have no idea what's on with the duck hunters, that never interested me.
I don't see other non-hunting gun sports (trap, skeet, rifle and handgun ranges) picking up much either. Suburban sprawl is killing off most gun ranges which were established out in the middle of nowhere after World War II. Sprawl has caught up with them and now "burbclaves" are within hearing distance of the gun reports. Fancy sporting clay clubs established more recently are more like country clubs and can be quite expensive.
That and ammunition of all kinds has become scarce because of all the political panic buying.
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>>I don't think all this outdoorsy-ness is going to stick.
That is my fervent hope ;-) The hunting thing doesn't affect me much, but other things do. It's a scramble to buy backcountry gear. I just build a website for a gear shop and he said his number one challenge this year is keeping stuff in stock. He told me that if needed new ski boots this year, I should purchase by Nov 15, because after that selection would start to get limited.
Meanwhile, in the park, wilderness permits were hard to come by all summer. Places I once thought of as obscure were hitting quota.
But I am banking on the idea that once people get comfortable riding lifts with strangers again, most people won't want to hump uphill. Once hotels and campgrounds with bathrooms are back to full capacity, most people will find that packing out their used toilet paper doesn't appeal to them that much.
I'm not entirely sure, though. For the last several years, backcountry skiing/boarding is the only sector that has been growing and it has been growing fast. And backpacking was already enjoying a bit of a resurgence after a vogue in the 1970s that bottomed out in the 1990s or so.
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I think some outdoor activities will continue, but cost & effort required will be the deciding factor. Relatively easy and cheap -like park trail hiking, or bird watching, maybe skateboarding- will be slow to taper off.
As Brad mentioned, hunting is getting costly now. Ammo and places to hunt are something of a PITA, even at entry level. (The feds would be camped on my doorstep if I were still buying shells by the wholesaler's master case like I did when I was a 'paid' dove hunter.) And most of the popular small game is scarce.
Fishing is not too costly at entry level, but fish populations are pretty pitiful in many places.
Everything about boating costs money.
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> Trail hiking.
Yeah I can see this being big. There are so many good hiking trails around and now new hikers have gotten a taste of them.
> bird watching
I'm surprised at how many bird watchers there are. This niche is popular and growing.
Camping may see a resurgence especially if covid lingers.
I think cycling is going to grow both for recreation and commuting. Cities are adding bike lanes like crazy and we've been building long distance, paved bike trails for the last 20 years, little sections at a time, and these are now coming together to actually go somewhere. Bike shops and Walmart could not keep bikes in stock last summer. This sport might have legs to expand.
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Bike shops and Walmart could not keep bikes in stock last summer.
My friends who started a bike shop a few months ago said they would be crushing it if they could only get bikes in, especially kids bikes. The only bikes they've managed to source are all over $3000, which is tough to sell. But they are cash-flow positive just doing repairs and selling what accessories they can source. But bikes... still a challenge. The big retailers have big contracts that have scooped up most of the supply.
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>One of the Pandemic’s Big Winners: Hunting
>License sales, in long decline, jumped this year as newcomers ventured into the wild.
Ironically, bird-watching is the scourge of wildlife conservation because it is soooooo cheap. Bird-watchers use resources but have no licenses or significant ways for conservationists to monetize them. Back when I was going to state and regional tourism conferences, one of the top state Wildlife honchos told me "Bird-watchers don't pay for s@&$!!"
So, back on topic, given the coming economy I'm expecting cheap-o bird-watching to stick around.
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>hunting, bird watching
That's good to know. We are fixing up the HomePlace to AirBnB during hunting season when my sister isn't living there in the summers with her kids. I am also fixing up my little Bungalow in town to AirBnB for when I'm living in KC.
I was talking to my real estate person in town, and she said there has been several families moving from Colorado to here just because they are sick of the commute and, since they can work from anywhere, can buy a house outright and bank the rest. I can't say I blame them.
I do think business real estate is going tank. Why would large companies pay rent on anything more than a meeting space when they can pay for people to work from home?
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> business real estate
There is a lot of discussion going on about this in urban planning circles. Many seem to think that a lot of the unused urban high rise office space will get converted to living space. People starting to have kids may want to move to the suburbs but many singles and childless couples still want the urban living experience.
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Good read.
A touchless 2020 | Engadget
https://www.engadget.com/touchless-contactless-technology-2020-160048513.html
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Taco Bell to open first digital-only U.S. location in Times Square
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/13/taco-bell-to-open-first-digital-only-us-location-in-times-square.html
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The "kiosk-only"model (no human cashiers) was actually implemented in the remodel of the Basecamp eatery in Yosemite Valley in about 2018 (2017? After the new concessioner took over in 2016). It wasn't a "Covid" measure so much as a "no expensive cashiers" measure. It's not touchless though. Just humanless.
For places with simple menus, it seems like the wave of the future. Less like the supermarket self-checkout (which I hate) and more like the ATM (it has been years since I've interacted with a human teller).
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Not sure if this will last, but for now...
>restaurants, pubs, kitchens
UK Survey shows public more aware of food safety since pandemic began | Food Safety News
https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/04/survey-shows-public-more-aware-of-food-safety-since-pandemic-began/
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One of Travis Kalanick's Cloud Kitchens is opening nearby. 40 kitchens, half leased.
Three chicken-focused kitchens with "edgy" Clucker names in the same building. Yikes.
The kitchen owners and delivery services will make money. The chefs, well...
https://5610foodco.com/
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"Futurists have talked for years about an economy based on more automation and artificial intelligence. Thanks to the pandemic, we might finally get it."
Rising Wages Herald a New Era of Jobless Growth - Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-06-11/rising-wages-herald-a-new-era-of-jobless-growth
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Well, of course they are.
Restaurants are starting to hire robots instead of people who are demanding higher pay
https://www.businessinsider.com/labor-shortage-automation-restaurants-hiring-employment-productivity-job-market-outlook-2021-7
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It always makes me think of Grapes of Wrath, chapter 5. Back then the headline was, "Large farms hire tractors to replace expensive farm laborers and mules," but despite about 85 years since that chapter was written, it feels surprisingly contemporary.
That man sitting in the iron seat did not look like a man; gloved, goggled, rubber dust mask over nose and mouth, he was a part of the monster, a robot in the seat … The driver could not control it – straight across country it went, cutting through a dozen farms and straight back...
"Nearly a hundred people have to go out and wander the roads for your three dollars a day. Is that right?"
And the driver said, "I can't think about that. Got to think of my own kids. Three dollars a day and it comes every day."
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>surprisingly contemporary
The feel-good bullshit at the end didn't phase you, eh?
"Americans who would've been taking orders and busing tables could develop new, more valuable skills as low-wage jobs are taken over by tech. Past periods of massive innovation — from the industrial revolution to the dot-com boom — didn't eliminate jobs, but shifted them elsewhere."
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Slideshow: Companies such as Hudson and McDonald’s are testing drive-thru AI, invisible checkout
https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-viz-hudson-white-castle-technology-photos-20210709-6lca744vk5gqzk6lefvguqkcem-photogallery.html
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>surprisingly contemporary
The feel-good bullshit at the end didn't phase you, eh?
"Americans who would've been taking orders and busing tables could develop new, more valuable skills as low-wage jobs are taken over by tech. Past periods of massive innovation — from the industrial revolution to the dot-com boom — didn't eliminate jobs, but shifted them elsewhere."
I did, in fact, almost comment on that stuff at the end and to some extent meant my mention of GoW to be aimed at that.
I think it's utter nonsense. I would say that's a default view of mine. I'm skeptical of any arguments based on "the greater good" (Stalinism, Nazism, Grindelwaldism (https://harrypotter.fandom.com/wiki/For_the_Greater_Good)).
It's why I'm generally not very open to the argument that I have heard from friends who work in zoos that say, "Yes, the animals are in confined spaces that are two small for them, but zoos are important for preserving the species." So in the case of some very rare animals that have tiny populations outside of zoos, a high percentage are kept in captivity in the name of the good of the species (and I do feel different about a "luxury" zoo where they can roam, but my experience of zoos has always left me so depressed that I just can't go).
That's how I feel when I read comments like the one you quoted.
We use the term "Luddite" to mean someone who is hopelessly and ignorantly against new technology. But the original Luddites were right. They believed that their quality of life would decrease as weaving shifted from a skilled artisanal activity to a factory occupation. And it did. Those populations did not recover until the great grandchildren of the original Luddite protesters entered the workforce. The Luddites and their children were made much worse off and (I think I have this right) the negative effects were still visible among their grandchildren.
So yes, in the long run and on average, automation will improve lives, but we as humans live as in the short run and as individuals. I expect the the short-run effect will be to concentrate wealth.
Exhibit B. Grapes of Wrath. That's sort of the point of the chapter I quoted from. Sure, in the long run we are all more prosperous because we've gone from a society where over half of all people were employed in agriculture to one where only 2% or so are. That's a complete inversion since the Middle Ages, by the way. On average and in the long run, it's been amazing. We have antibiotics and polio vaccine and central heat and climate-controlled self-propelled wagons. But for those like the Joads who were dispossessed of their land, it was not great to live through.
I think you can say something similar after a tour of Detroit, Youngstown and many other once-prosperous towns of the Midwest.
So I expect that the dislocation will be painful in the short run, even if it is beneficial in the long run. And unlike the previous dislocations, it will hit not just a couple of big sectors like fast food workers (maybe we are better off losing most of those jobs), but huge numbers of people who wear nice shoes and sit behind computers all day. Like the artisan weavers and the independent farmers and autoworkers in the heyday, they think of themselves as one or two rungs up the social ladder with a solid way to make a living, so they will find it hard to be kicked to the bottom. Some of us will be adaptable and thrive, and some of us will join up with Ned Ludd and attack the factories.
And given that any problems we have from automation will be compounded by climate change, I think the "short run" might not be very short this time.
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Some retail apocalypse, some covid related.
The experiences replacing closed High Street stores - BBC News
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57934829
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https://nypost.com/2021/08/10/google-slashing-pay-for-work-from-home-employees-by-up-to-25/
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The Google spokesperson says that they always paid based on where people lived, but I'm guessing that not precisely correct. I assume that in the Before Times, the pay was adjusted based on where they worked, which makes sense when you are requiring people to show up at a specific location. People with massive long commutes did not get paid less because they lived in Stamford, CN.
Then, they were incentivizing people to move to the super expensive places where Google has its offices. Totally sensible. Now it seems like it is incentivizing the wrong thing. By their logic, I could work for the Kansas City office and get a raise by leaving my home one block from my office that I go to in person and moving to SF and working remotely.
It seems like it should be a step function.
- you choose to show up in person, you get one rate
- you choose not to, you get another rate.
Either showing up in person has value or it doesn't. If it doesn't have value, why do I get paid more for living close to the office, even though I don't actually go in? It's like some weird social engineering to entice people to live in costlier places.
I don't really understand.
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One month later: These maps show how quickly Covid engulfed the US again
More than 98% of US residents now live in an area where there is a "high" or "substantial" risk of Covid-19 community transmission, up from 19% of residents only a month ago.
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/11/health/one-month-later-these-maps-show-how-quickly-covid-engulfed-the-us-again/index.html
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I drove past an anti-mask rally in Tahoe this weekend. They had kids holding signs saying stuff like "let us breath".
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So much time on their hands they can waste it on an "anti-mask" rally! Wow!
Either very rich or very poor? Tahoe, I guess rich?
Mask use is almost non existent in the UK petrol forecourts and pubs and cafes in the UK (midlands). The odd person does, but 80% don't. Its not law to, it left to individual choice.
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>anti-mask rally
A friend of mine posted yesterday trying to get people to go to an anti-mask rally in front of the school admin building here. The current plan is for masks to be required again at schools this fall. Overall I have been seeing more and more masks in stores again even though there isn't any sort of mandate yet.
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>Either very rich or very poor? Tahoe, I guess rich?
There is a mix up there. In the US anti-maskers and anti-vaxxers are in every income bracket; overall they lean right, but there are some on the left too. You would be surprised by the nonsense some middle class Americans believe in.
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Just put a link in the Humour thread, as it made me laugh. But its on the theme of anti vaccers in the UK.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/09/confused-anti-vaccine-protesters-storm-bbc-hq-years-after-moved-out
all sorts of idiots at it over her it seems too
Among the individuals outside was Piers Corbyn, the brother of the former Labour party leader, who was recorded on one live stream as saying “we’ve got to take over these bastards”, while other individuals on the protest described the media as “the virus” and criticised the BBC’s coverage of the coronavirus pandemic.
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McAutomation
McDonald’s Partners With IBM to Replace Drive-Thru Employees With AI
https://futurism.com/the-byte/mcdonalds-ibm-replace-drive-thru-employees
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Robots hit the streets as demand for food delivery grows
https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-technology-science-business-europe-5b7dbb782f89ef3d586eefb9a33d5e1c
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How do they keep roving dogs from eating all the pizzas on the little robots? Serious question.
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I'm guessing they have some sort of lid lock code that is passed to the buyer. But I do think these are going to develop 'porch pirate' issues.
Also, the media seems to me to be making these out to be a little more sophisticated than they actually are.
https://www.reddit.com/r/therewasanattempt/comments/q5ajr6/to_deliver_food/
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The robots behind the bar that want to pull your next pint - BBC News
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59246183
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>>F&P Robotics, which makes the Barney Bar, pictured, says such robots won't replace many human bar staff
Of course not. Bars are going to spend $45K to $150K on robotic bar tenders because it will allow existing staff to fulfill more high-level functions such as counseling patrons on their marriages and jobs. There will be no workforce reduction. Bar tenders will, however, be expected to have Master's or PhD degrees in counseling.
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I can see it at banquets, cruise ships and hotels, freeing up human bartenders to push high dollar mixed umbrella drinks made with call booze. But makes no sense in a pub.
> counseling
You guys hang out in a more POSH sort of bar than I used to. My favorite bartender had a sawed off baseball bat behind the bar for counseling. hhh
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>baseball bat
When I was 18 (ok, ok, 16-17) the bars out on the barrier islands had a potent mix of patrons in the fall --Navy sailors from Norfolk fleet, commercial fishermen from the soundside fishing villages, and high school boys from the mainland. It was gang warfare to get in and out. The roughest bar was over near the main fishing village with mostly commercial fishermen drinking the day away. No bouncer, just mean, surly fishermen. High school boys from the mainland were definitely not welcome ....don't ask me how I know.
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Honestly, I don't hang out in bars, but one of my best friends is a bartender. Most of the counseling is diverting couples fighting over nonsense and trying to get them back to having a good time.
People who are having a good time tip better. So one of the differences between a psychologist counselor and a barkeep counselor, is the later has a vested interest in you getting better, unless your mental illness comes in the form of alcohol addiction.
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Raspberry Pi Cocktail Machine Mixes Your Favorite Drinks | Tom's Hardware
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/raspberry-pi-cocktail-maker
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US: CVS To Close 900 Stores As It Adjusts To Increasing Number Of Online Shoppers
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Now more North Carolina homes can order food delivery via drone
https://dronedj.com/2021/12/15/flytrex-north-carolina-food-drone-delivery-radius/
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Americans Are Less Likely Than Before COVID-19 To Want To Live in Cities| Pew Research Center
https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2021/12/16/americans-are-less-likely-than-before-covid-19-to-want-to-live-in-cities-more-likely-to-prefer-suburbs/
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The rise of unions.
Starbucks Workers United Wins in US’s Most Anti-Union City (TLDR: Greenville SC)
https://truthout.org/articles/starbucks-workers-united-wins-in-uss-most-anti-union-city/
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In Madison, where this is a headline story in the local paper
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/may/23/activision-blizzard-raven-software-union-vote
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Dreaded Commute to the City Is Keeping Offices Mostly Empty (wsj.com)
Urban areas where people live closer to work have a higher return-to-office rate, WSJ analysis shows
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The recent growth of unions is somewhat surprising to me.
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How so?
And by that, I guess I'm asking...
... because it seemed like an inexorable downward trend?
... because you expected an ebb and flow, but just didn't expect it now?
I feel like people have been trying to reboot the union movement in greater earnest for about a decade with some successes, but an overall consistent outflow. Perhaps they organizing tools were being put in place, but conditions were unfavorable until the tight labor market meant workers were more willing to take risks and Covid work conditions meant workers were less attached to their jobs.
Most "front line" workers I know say they have never been treated so poorly and disliked their jobs so much as in the last two years.
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Gen Z and millennials default on auto loans at far greater rates than before the pandemic
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/gen-z-millennials-default-auto-loans-far-greater-rates-pandemic-rcna31479
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>... because it seemed like an inexorable downward trend?
Yes, mostly that. The anti-union rhetoric has been so strong and consistent in it's message in the United States that I felt the movement was permanently on the decline.
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I suspect that there is so much coverage of the exceptions because you’re still basically right.
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>rise
Starbucks now has 150 unionized shops.
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4,000 Google cafeteria workers quietly unionized during the pandemic
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/09/05/google-union-pandemic/
My first reaction was, "Google has 4000 cafeteria workers?" Then I realized that it has a lot more than that. 4,000 are unionized.
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Next up, UPS. They are already Teamsters, but the contract is coming for renegotiation next year
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/09/05/business/ups-teamster-union-strike/index.html
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>UPS
I was working at UPS back in 1997 (Maybe '96?) when they went on strike. That big strike fund the Teamsters talked about before the strike and how they would make sure we still have money coming in if we strike? Yeah, we never saw any of that. Really hope that isn't the same for workers this time around. I was pretty low level at the time and thought the contract they were offering was pretty good overall. The contract the union ended up signing seemed to just benefit the long time workers and people who had been there for 20+ years.
But every night at our scheduled shift we would just hang out outside the gate, grill up a bunch of food the union grocery stores around the area brought us, have a couple drinks, and overall have a good time. No picketing or harassing trucks or anything like that.
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From today's NYT newsletter about China...
I wrote this week about these young protesters, and I interviewed a college student in the southern port city of Guangzhou, who used Apple’s AirDrop feature to send photos of protest messages to fellow subway passengers’ iPhones. He’s so young that when he said his age, my heart ached. (He asked to keep his name and his age private for fear of punishment by the Chinese authorities.) I asked why he risked so much to protest. He said he wanted to end the rule of the Communist Party and make China a democratic country.
I asked him why democracy was important. “In a dictatorship, the dictator doesn’t need to answer to anybody,” he said. “If the Chinese have the votes, the government will have to think twice before implementing the zero Covid policy.”
It seems that anti-government sentiment in response to Covid is not leading to authoritarianism or democracy, but a regression to the mean.
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Remote Work Is Gutting Downtowns, Will Cost Cities $453 Billion
"What is clear is that an office-centric downtown is soon to be a thing of the past."
"Before the pandemic, 95% of offices were occupied. Today that number is closer to 47%. Employees' not returning to downtown offices has had a domino effect: Less foot traffic, less public-transit use, and more shuttered businesses have caused many downtowns to feel more like ghost towns. Even 2 1/2 years later, most city downtowns aren't back to where they were prepandemic."
https://www.businessinsider.com/remote-work-gutted-city-downtowns-office-real-estate-apocalypse-2022-12
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>"Before the pandemic, 95% of offices were occupied. Today that number is closer to 47%. Employees'
Lots of talk about the housing bubble, but no one seems to be paying attention to the office space real estate bubble.
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>Less foot traffic, less public-transit use, and more shuttered businesses
So, convert it to residential space? Seems like that would solve multiple problems.
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I think this is still shaking out as corps are lately starting to demand people come back. I sure wouldn't want to own a pure high end office space right now though.
>So, convert it to residential space? Seems like that would solve multiple problems.
If this is the same article I read, they touched on the structures not being good layouts for residential requiring too much upfit to repurpose and they're also often in bad neighborhoods and/or with no community.
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>> not being good layouts for residential
I read that the big problem is the often sprawling, square design of the classic office block where only the elites get offices with windows and a lot of the space is deep inside - too much of the space is too far from windows to be either nice to live in or to meet codes for fire egress and health.
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>fire egress
yep, and modern US homes now tend to have a lot of plumbing. Retrofitting wiring and pressure water pipes might be do-able but DWV -drain/waste/vent- would be incredibly expensive.
Residential water supply pressures gets to be problematic when you get above a few stories high.
And then there's the issue with the power requirements for individualized water heating & HVAC.
And how are you going to meter utilities?
No, tear them down.
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What Comes Next for the Most Empty Downtown in America - The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/17/business/economy/california-san-francisco-empty-downtown.html
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Most Empty Downtown
Hmm... When our 18yo niece and her friend visited, we took them around SF for a couple of days. Seemed busy and dynamic. If there had been any more cars, it would have been impossible to park.
I read the numbers, and I believe them. But is commercial occupancy being down the same as "empty" or "deserted" (both words the author uses)? Maybe the pre-pandemic levels were "overcrowded" and "unmanageable."
I don't know. There's only so much I can say from a two-day visit and since I've never been a regular visitor even when I lived in Berkeley (because it was too damn crowded) maybe I'm just way off.
Littleman? What's the report from the ground?
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So, convert it to residential space?
https://99percentinvisible.org/episode/office-space/
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>Littleman? What's the report from the ground?
I am several months late (missed this last time), but I can tell you that returning to the office seems to be in full swing now. The traffic is approaching to pre-pandemic numbers. I'm not in SF proper, but the office buildings Peninsula seems to be getting occupied again.
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So, convert it to residential space?
https://99percentinvisible.org/episode/office-space/
"Cities can encourage more conversions with things like tax breaks and new zoning rules and governments just spending public money to make these conversions happen."
They absolutely should incentivize conversions to keep downtowns alive and thriving.