Residential Property Bubble?

Started by Drastic, May 03, 2017, 05:55:34 PM

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Drastic

A contact mentioned yesterday how Baby Boomers leaving the house-owner pool (dying off) and current 30-somethings can't afford to buy those houses will give us another major market correction in the near future.

Thoughts?

littleman

Sure.  Also, that doesn't even take into account any outside factors that could disrupt the housing market. 

rcjordan

It seems logical, and I think it'll hit rural areas the hardest.  But...

>disrupt

Autonomous cars could totally change -or even reverse- the demographic trend of urbanization. What's a little commute if you can just hop in your pod and have your morning to yourself while Hal does the driving?

Same for drones and e-comm. Now I can live in the 'burbs and never have to go to town --just tell Alexa what I want delivered.

DrCool

>>never have to go to town

Restaurants will be a key here. If food delivery gets to the point where you never have to go to a restaurant I totally see this. People are currently spending more and more eating out than ever before and I am guessing a lot of that growth is coming from more of the hipster type restaurants that tend to be in the cities, not Chilis and Applebees in the suburbs.  Grubhub and sites like that could be game changers. Wouldn't surprise me if we soon start seeing some "real" restaurants that operate more like pizza delivery joints and just do deliveries.

rcjordan

>restaurants key

Doc nailed it. 

QuoteAmericans are spending more at bars and restaurants ($54.857 billion) than they are on groceries ($52.503 billion). It's the first time it's happened in recorded history. A bunch of behavioral and economic forces are intersecting to produce that historic change:

http://nymag.com/scienceofus/2016/06/americans-spend-more-on-restaurants-than-groceries.html

rcjordan

<added>

Domino's Pizza Tracker now integrates with IFTTT, so you can set your smart home to prepare for the delivery.

https://www.engadget.com/2017/05/01/dominos-and-ifttt-make-getting-takeout-even-lazier/

Travoli

>reverse- the demographic trend of urbanization

*Maybe* once they're married with kids.

Right now we only think about the cost of driving 1x/month (loan payment) and at the gas station. Each trip in a self-driving Uber will have an immediate cost and psychological effect. They will want to minimize the constant fees.
I think people will continue to concentrate in cities where travel time and cost is reduced.

I'm worried the psychological change will reduce family vacation/leisure travel significantly, too.

aaron

>I think people will continue to concentrate in cities where travel time and cost is reduced.

Quite often it can take longer to go far shorter distances in cities than it can to drive far in the countryside. The East Bay is close to San Francisco on the map, but if you don't use Bart and travel during rush hour that can easily add an hour to the trip. It is the same amount of time to go 10 miles west as it is to go say 50 miles east.

If work actually becomes more remote for many people that can reshape demand, though certainly there is an argument to be made that much of innovation comes from many types of people being in close contact.

Also in many/most cases the cost savings from less gas spending from living in a big city is more than offset by far higher rent prices.

Mackin USA

More & More folks are working from home.
Mr. Mackin

rcjordan

Seems like we're all pointing to the same issue ...disruption(s) working for/against the bubble. Hard to say which will win out.