Thanks for putting your perspective out there Dras.  I hope you are right, 4 to 5 years of not-bad times would sure be nice.

Quote from: Drastic on May 29, 2019, 05:42:09 PM
I am currently hoping for another good 4-5 years. Not necessarily great, but not bad or tanking.

I was just reading some articles that didn't seem good enough to share, but the brief version is that Mark Zandi of Moody's is saying recession is very unlikely in 2019 and 30% chance by summer 2020. That is roughly the same prediction they made in 2011 for 2012 (which, as you will recall, was not a recession). So Moody's is betting that there is less than even odds before 2021.

US economy grew at solid 3.1% rate in Q1 | Idaho Statesman
https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/business/article230978488.html

[Home] Sales were 2% lower compared with April 2018, the 16th straight month of annual declines.

The continued decline in RV shipments implies the next recession is here.

The Treasury yield curve, a key recession indicator, is at its widest since 2007 - Axios
https://www.axios.com/yield-curve-inversion-2008-recession-bonds-bbcd9568-e340-4c8b-ae65-241cb5f5cca6.html

And then there is the orange elephant in the room.

Peak auto. The pain is just the beginning:

https://www.businessinsider.com/peak-car-38000-layoffs-job-losses-sales-at-auto-makers-2019-5

So does this mean the trend of people just rolling credit to the new ride has stopped?

Global Manufacturing Shrinks Amid Wall Street Recession Warning

The Mall Meltdown Continues

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-mall-meltdown-continues-11559559600

IBM layoffs: Company expected to cut more than 1000 employees | Durham Herald Sun
https://www.heraldsun.com/news/business/article231297813.html

US employers added a weak 75,000 jobs in May - ABC News
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/latest-us-employers-added-weak-75000-jobs-63551382

Ouch, that is worse than I was expecting. 

Top comment from the seekingalpha article LM linked:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4267177-rv-shipments-recession-predictor-refuses-take-month

RV shipments have declined but not in a manner that is telling us a recession is here or coming anytime soon, (maybe a slow down)? Granted, sales of Motorhomes and Fifth wheel units are seeing a slow down, but overall trailer sales are still in line. Our dealership has been up every month this year vs. YOY numbers from 2018. Last month unit sells were up 10% and F&I profits were up just over 10%.
Our net margins have declined to about 11% average for 2019 vs. 14% in 2018. Margin decline mainly is coming from myself reducing inventory on our lot, but we've offset that with F&I profits. My plan started last September and so far has played out very well. We are still in our busy season in the southeast and have a good 4 months left in 2019 to move volume and get our inventory where I want it. Overall our dealership should be inline with 2018 numbers. FYI, we have been buying new units every week, all year long.
As some have read my previous posts, we only sale affordable new and used travel trailers. This is one of the main reasons our dealership has always done well no matter the economy. The main reason I have been deleveraging for 9 months now is my concern on lending. The banks for several years now have been lending to customers with sub 600 credit scores, 30% of our loans are sub prime loans,(15%+ interest rates). My concern is when banks say, "no more loans", then there goes 30% of our sales.
Regardless of what happens we will come out on the other side still selling campers to folks at affordable prices.
The slow down should only take 6 more months to correct itself and early 2020 dealers should have their inventory where they want it. I personally don't see RV's being sold at 2017-2019 volume for several more years, but regardless of the economy they will still be produced.
Departing statement;
As long as banks keep lending to sub prime customers and unemployment stays below 4.5% we will not see a full blown recession, only a slow down.
RSM
29 May 2019, 10:19 PM


Anecdotal yet interesting take.

>As long as banks keep lending to sub prime customers

So, our economy is dependent upon continuing to milk those poor bastards?  Not a good sign of fundamental strength, imo.

First in establishing a successful Sub-Prime selling machine you need a manager
that knows the Sub-Prime game, and who possesses two essential characteristics:
Integrity and Motivation.  If the leader does not believe the department can be
built into a raving success, it will never happen.  Check out the manager's concept
of how far the department can go.  If the manager does not believe that the
department can become a huge success (and it may take some time), find
another Leader.

http://www.automotivedealersnetwork.com/Articles/RHarris/SubPrimeCustomers.html