What did you commit to Dras?

> largest financial commitment

Bank some money and wait for contractor prices to go down while they're scrounging for work.  I saved >$7k on a commercial-grade bulkhead installation at the peak of the last recession.  The contractor was dealing near cost just to keep his crews employed.

Quote from: Mackin USA on August 14, 2019, 05:27:08 PM
Rising wages

Yes. If we can just hold onto this economy a bit longer, we'll see some significant wage increases. Right now in the US, some big pain points I see are caused by labor shortages. The shuttle system in Yosemite is a mess because they can't find drivers. If the economy holds up for another 9 months, I *hope* we'll see significant wage incentives to get drivers to take that job.

What's interesting in the US is the level of anxiety, which is so out of step with the traditional metrics. I think it basically boils down to many forms of insecurity - job insecurity, scheduling insecurity, benefits insecurity and so on that has people on edge in a way that is atypical for these levels of unemployment.

When the unemployment rate gets LOW employers begin to hire the unemployable.

Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast –Slight Rise Indicates Traders Downplaying Recession Concerns

https://beta.finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-084032914.html

Quote
Early in the week, the markets were underpinned by optimism over potential production cuts by OPEC. Today, it's better than expected U.S. retail sales data supporting prices. On Thursday, the U.S. reported that retail sales rose 0.7% in July as consumers bought a range of goods

Betting on the blissful ignorance of the average American consumer to fuel the economy can only work so long.

Low unemployment, wage gains and a growing economy can bring on

RV Shipments are down 2 years in a row, which happened before last 3 recessions.

https://www.newser.com/story/279343/what-rv-shipments-say-about-a-possible-recession.html

"We live in an interconnected world"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MzKLs8l9UPM

US has half a million fewer jobs than believed after big government revision

QuoteThe large change means job growth averaged 170,000 a month during the 12-month period, down from the 210,000 initially estimated, according to JPMorgan Chase.

Employment in several industries was revised down especially sharply. Payrolls dropped 175,000 in leisure and hospitality, and 146,000 in retail – two bellwether service sectors that depend heavily on consumer spending, the economy's main engine.

Employment also fell by 163,000 in professional and business services and 69,000 in education and health services.

Recession Fears Are Overblown
The yield curve is no longer a reliable predictor, and other economic indicators are strong.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/recession-fears-are-overblown-11566341495

Quote from: Mackin USA on August 22, 2019, 10:02:22 AM
The yield curve is no longer a reliable predictor

Highly debated,  but possibly true for many reasons. I guess two years from now we'll know (the Great Recession began 23 months after the yield curve inverted)
https://www.npr.org/2019/08/21/753185863/episode-934-two-yield-curve-indicators

Yep, possible July 2021

I'd rather we don't have a recession for another 10 years, but if it's going to come, I wish it would come right now.

Our massive debt is going to make the coming recession that much more painful.

Why skyrocketing federal debt will mean the next recession is harder to overcome